More than three-quarters of countries could see population decline by the middle of the next century to fertility rates Research indicates that it is “in decline.”
By 2100, more than 97% of countries – 198 out of 204 – will have Fertility rates less than is necessary to maintain population size over time, According to a study published in The scalpel.
Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factors study predicts that sub-Saharan Africa will account for one in every two children born on the planet by the end of this century. On the other hand, in Western Europe, the total fertility rate – the average number of children born to women of reproductive age – is expected to reach 1.44 in 2050, then decline to 1.37 in 2100.
In the United Kingdom, the total fertility rate was 2.19 in 1950, falling to 1.85 in 1980 and then to 1.49 in 2021. This is well below the 2.1 rate needed to keep the population stable without significant migration.
By 2050, the UK's total fertility rate is expected to reach 1.38, falling to 1.30 by 2100.
Low fertility rates: 'Reshaping the global economy'
The researchers said the findings pose “serious challenges” to global economic growth, especially amid a shrinking labor force and aging population.
For countries with low fertility rates, social policies such as promoting parental leave, free childcare and additional labor rights could provide a small boost, but most countries would still fall below the levels needed to maintain their populations, they said.
“The implications are enormous,” said Dr. Natalia Bhattacharjee, co-lead author and senior research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine in the US.
He added, “These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reshape the global economy and international balance of power and will require the reorganization of societies.”
For his part, lead author Professor Stein-Emil Folset from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said: “We are facing amazing social change throughout the 21st century.”
He added, “The world will simultaneously face a baby boom in some countries and a 'baby depression' in others.”
The analysis predicts that in 2050 Niger will have the highest fertility rate, with an average of five children per woman, but this could fall to 2.7 children if universal education goals are met.
South Korea, worst fertility rates
According to the analysis, South Korea will have the worst fertility rate by mid-century, with 0.82 children per woman. The global total fertility rate has fallen by more than half over the past 70 years, from about five children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021, the researchers said.
They added that it would be important for countries with low fertility rates to implement policies that “support those who want to have children and provide additional benefits to society, such as a better quality of life and greater participation of women in the labor force, along with open immigration policies.”
“There is no silver bullet,” Bhattacharjee said. “Social policies To improve birth rates, Such as increased parental leave, free childcare, financial incentives and additional working rights may provide a small boost to fertility rates, but most countries will remain below replacement levels.
“Once the population shrinks in almost all countries, it will be necessary to rely on open migration to maintain economic growth,” he added.
Dr. Bhattacharjee said that sub-Saharan African countries have a critical resource missing in societies with aging populations: youth among their populations. In addition, he expressed concern that some countries, in light of declining populations and the absence of clear solutions, might choose restrictive policies on reproductive rights.
She highlighted the interrelationship between respect for women's rights and progress in health and the economy, noting that countries committed to women's rights tend to achieve greater progress.
few (dpa, evi)
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