The International Monetary Fund improves its forecast for the growth of the Argentine economy | 7.5 percent by 2021 and 2.5 percent by 2022

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its forecast for the growth of the Argentine economy, for which it expects a by 7.5 percent by 2021 and 2.5 percent by 2022.

The numbers are better than those the agency projected last July and are higher than the regional and global average. Compatible with Latest Global Economic Outlook report (WEO), titled “Recovering During the Pandemic,” and presented this morning by the IMF’s Chief Economist, Gita Gopinath.

Last July, the fund predicted a 6.4 percent recovery for Argentina, while now Estimates have been raised and matched with the figures shown by the World Bank in the report released last week.

for latin america, The International Monetary Fund expects a recovery of 6.3 percent, while the global recovery will be 5.9, The latter is a percentage point lower than last July.

According to the report, Argentina – along with the rest of the emerging and low-income countries- It will not reach pre-pandemic growth levels this year or in 2022 as if developed countries, Although all predictions are questioned about the continuation of the pandemic.

Inflation, unemployment and balance of payments

Regarding Argentina’s inflation figures, the IMF has excused itself from making forecasts for the country due to Ongoing Negotiations Between the agency and the Argentine government to reschedule 45 billion dollars of debt inherited from the previous administration.

“For Argentina, the fiscal and inflation variables were excluded from publication for 2021-26, given that they are largely related to the program negotiations that are still pending,” the fund explained in the report.

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In terms of employment figures, the recovery of the economy allows an estimate Unemployment will drop from 11.6 percent last year to 10 percent this year, A trend that will continue to decline in 2022, is expected to average 9.2 percent.

Regarding the current account balance, The rise in the prices of raw materials makes it possible to expect a rise in exports that would raise the trade balance and services abroad by 1% by 2021, and by 0.8 by 2022.

Globally, ‘the total production of a group Developed economies regain trajectory from previous pandemic trend in 2022 and surpassed it by 0.9 percent in 2024.”

Less than pre-pandemic growth

In contrast, the total production of the group of emerging markets and developing economies (excluding China) It will remain 5.5 percent Below the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024, “resulting in a significant setback to improving their living standards,” they noted.

“These differences are the result of ‘Big vaccine gap’ and ‘huge disparities in policy support’, Fund is considered.

The presentation of the report in the framework of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank coincides with the presence of the Chairman of the Board of Directors Argentine delegation in Washington headed by Economy Minister Martin Guzman and Central Bank President Miguel Pesci. who are in town to attend these meetings and to continue negotiating a new program with the IMF.

Freddie Dawson

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