International Day Against Climate Change: The three records that have become the new normal

Records, records, records. This is the New normal with regard to Atmospheric dynamics And what begins the life of humanity on this planet He gets used to it. he Climate change Its effects appear with the increase in the volume of greenhouse gas emissions and their consequences increase in temperature, the Loss of ice at the poles And the Sea level rise.

Stifling Heat waves Who flogged Northern hemisphere Since the beginning of the year, the first sirens sounded; So much so that the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres The phenomenon generating the climate crisis has been renamed “Global boiling”.

But the new brands did not stop there. With each passing month, thermal records surpassed the previous, historic month. Last month was no exception: September It was the month hotter During 174 years of world records, according to data from National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) For the United States, while European Copernicus Observatory He confirmed the branding in early October.

He said in a statement, “September 2023 was the fourth month in a row in which record temperatures were recorded.” Sarah Kapnick NOAA’s chief scientist. In this sense, he explained, “It was not only the hottest September on record, but also, Most unusually hot“In agency records.

The agency went further: “There is a greater than 99% probability 2023 Be the The hottest year “It was never recorded,” the American organization said. The “fateful prediction” comes weeks before world leaders meet in November Dubai to United Nations Climate Change Conference 2023 (COP28), A meeting in which they will discuss the future Fossil fuels, It is considered the main cause of global warming. The bad news is that measures to halt the rise in average global temperatures are not the same as those taken by atmospheric physics.

In the covered area Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and BrazilThe trend was similar. In fact, the World Weather Attribution (WWA(, for its abbreviation in English) indicates that rising temperatures are directly linked to climate change Extreme thermal events are 100 times more likelys: “In August and September temperatures exceeded 40 degrees Celsius in Brazil, Bolivia, Argentina and Paraguay, affecting millions of people,” the Scientific Reference Authority noted.

he National Meteorological Service (SMN) He noted that extreme heat events in early spring “are proving particularly dangerous because local populations have not yet acclimatized to the high temperatures.”

The agency also stressed that September was “0.93°C warmer than the 1991-2020 baseline, which is used as a practical tool for climate-sensitive sectors, e.g. agriculture”. This increase in temperatures poses major challenges to agriculture and other climate-dependent sectors, in a country that has not yet recovered from the crisis. Three consecutive years of drought related to the phenomenon The baby girlThis left losses estimated at approximately 3% of GDP.

the oceans, Changes are also visible in the planet’s lungs. And records. Causes polluting emissions The oceans are warm. According to the latest data from the European Union Climate Observatory, Copernicus, The ocean surface temperature rose to 20.96 degrees on July 30. The previous record was 20.95 degrees in March 2016.

A tenth of a degree increase may seem small, but it is not. Scientists warn that the effects of marine heat waves include: Species migration and extinction, The arrival of invasive species with consequences for fishing And the Aquaculture.

Warmer oceans are less absorbent Carbon Dioxide (CO2), which enhances the stagnation of global warming. In addition, a rise in temperatures is likely, since a phenomenon has occurred boy, Which tends to warm the water, will develop, according to what was reported by the World Meteorological Organization.

Scientists estimate that the worst effects of the current El Niño phenomenon will be recorded End of this year It will continue in the following years. “While there are undoubtedly short-term factors, the long-term is undoubtedly the main reason Accumulation of greenhouse gases In the atmosphere caused by human activity, especially by burning fossil fuels, He said Rowan Sutton Director of Climate Research University of Readingin the UK.

Another worrying climate change record occurred in Antarctica. This polar region is analyzed by scientists as one of More stable areas, regarding the climate crisis. But in 2023, a decrease in sea ice formation showed a abnormality Regarding what was observed. Antarctic sea ice, which typically shrinks to its lowest levels in late February and rebuilds during the winter, It did not return to expected levels this year. In fact, it is located in Lowest level This time of year since records began 45 years ago. The surface of water that has not turned into ice is equivalent to that of Argentina.

Is it a trend? It’s too early to know, but scientists are already closely analyzing this phenomenon. He worries. Antarctica, an ice-covered continent surrounded by ocean, has… 90% of the world’s ice. This coverage is called “ice blanket” (Ice cover) is a frozen mass of terrestrial origin that was formed as a result of… Accumulation And from the pressure Snow during thousands of years. The extension of the mantle over the sea forms a floating ice shelf. It is the ice that does not form at the poles that generates sea level rise, so this natural relationship is also understandable.

he The record that generates the most frustration It is that of a generation Greenhouse gas emissionsThese are the causes of climate change. While countries should work to reduce the amount of gases they emit, the opposite is true.

At the beginning of 2023, it was announced that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels increased by 0.9% in 2022 and would reach a record level. 2023 promises a new peak.

“It will be necessary to reduce carbon pollution Nearly half of this decade “To achieve global goals to limit global warming and avoid catastrophic climate impacts,” warned the experts responsible for the study that will present carbon budgets, the final analysis of which will be published on Conference of the Parties 28.

“Global carbon dioxide emissions should fall by about 5% this year. Instead, they have continued to rise with current forecasts for emissions to rise by between 0.5% and 1.5% over the year,” he added. Glenn PetersResearch Director at the CICERO Climate Research Institute in Norway.

The positive trend forces the world to do so Accelerate energy transformation. It has become clear that delay is just self-harm.