Next Sunday, December 19, the ballot that will determine Chile Presidential Elections they will face Gabriel BorekThe left-wing candidate and the far-right Jose Antonio Cast. Political scientist and electoral data expert Andy Tao developed an election scenario simulation to explore who might be elected based on how the votes of failed candidates are distributed.
In the first round, no candidate exceeded 30% of the vote, and the difference between the first two was close to two percentage points. The total votes of the candidates who did not make it to the second round (Franco Baresi, Sebastian Seychelles, Jasna Provosti and Marco Enriquez-Ominami) is approximately 45%.
How to use the simulator
- Move the light blue control button to the left to get a percentage of the votes for another candidate for José Antonio Caste.
- Move the light blue control to the right to get a percentage of the votes for another Gabriel Boric candidate.
- Note how these sounds will affect the percentages of Kast and Boric.
- Use the first light blue control (Hold) to simulate the derivation of a percentage of votes from Kast to Boric or from Boric to Kast, respectively.
- Click the Reset button to return the emulator to the initial position and explore other scenarios.
Context and results of the first round
The presidential candidates with the most votes in the first round of November 21 represented the new political blocs. To the far right, Caste, with the support of the Christian Social Front, made up of the Republican Party he founded. On the left, Gabriel Borek, of the I Approve Dignity Bloc, made up of the Broad Front and the Communist Party. In this way, the candidates representing the extremists arrived in the second round: respond to the demands of the Chileans who took to the streets in October 2019 or return to Chile before the outbreak of society.
From the second round were representatives of the traditional political blocs: on the right, Sebastian Seychelles took fourth place (12.8%), and in the center left, Jasna Provosti came in fifth place (11.6%). Voting fragmentation, and second-round prospects, makes Franco Baresi prominent in Chilean politics. This wasn’t his first presidential run (in 2013 as an independent candidate he received 10% of the support), but in this context he ranked third with 13% of those who did get it despite not having a strong influence. Party structure to support it.
One of many possible scenarios
For example, playing with the simulator can be seen that if 100% of the votes of Provoste, Enriquez-Ominami and Artes go to Boric, then 100% of the votes of Sichel go to Kast and the votes of Parisi go to Boric. In equal proportions, the leftist candidate will be the next president of Chile, devoting himself with 53% of the vote.
However, it must be borne in mind that voting is not mandatory in Chile. Therefore, the main variable, which was not considered in this simulation, is the level of participation. If it is considered that the turnout in the first round of November 21, 2021 was 47%, then the greater or lower turnout in the poll on December 19 can significantly affect the outcome.
About simulation data
The default values used in the simulation calculate the percentage of votes obtained by Kast and Boric in the first round plus 50% of each remaining candidate: this algebraically gives 51% for Kast and 49% for Boric.
Therefore, in the extreme case that all the votes of the candidates who did not participate in the second round are handed over to Boric or Kast, the proportion of those who did not receive these votes will be the same as that obtained in the first round.