MADRID, June 22 (Europe Press) –
The Ibex 35 values with exposure to the UK and US and issues related to sustainability will do better in the second half of 2021, explained Tressis CEO, José Miguel Maté, and Tressis Chief Economist, Daniel Lacalle.
In an interview with the media, Lacalle specified that companies exposed to these countries would do better, although it would be “difficult” to expect positive behavior like the first part of the year in the markets.
Overall, Lacalle added, companies’ behavior in this crisis has been “impressive”, reacting “quickly” to avoid product shortages and strengthening the balance sheet, getting better than expected results through consensus.
However, given the recovery in the form of a “K”, there will be sectors with a record reopening of 10%-20% less compared to 2019, and Spain will close the year with higher unemployment than it was in the same year.
Trecis also warned of greater fluctuations in values, in an environment that “continues to drive investors to risk,” while cautioning about the prospects of higher interest rates in Latin America and their monetary impact.
Regarding inflation, Lacalle highlighted the difference between the official central bank and those seen by citizens and stressed that it represents the great danger of this crisis, as it “may lower expectations” of consumption.
Lacalle also drew attention to the quality of growth and recovery, with some countries growing, such as the United States and other Asian economies, and others recovering, such as the European Union (EU) and Latin America.
He noted that “the United States is seeing an expansion in its GDP that will make it recover 100% of what it lost in 2020 this quarter,” adding that it is experiencing a “rebound in unemployment”: despite the United States increasing by 40% its GDP growth estimates, Engagement in the business has been stagnant for ten years, according to the economist.
Debt is one of the reasons why a manager considers payback to be of low quality. Mattei in this sense noted that although its cost is 50% less than in 2010, it is issued a much higher amount, so if what is paid for it rises, it will “drain” resources from investment and current expenditures. .
“The accumulation of debt leads us to a situation where we basically need three to four units of debt to generate one euro or one dollar for growth,” Lacalle explained.
For his part, Mattei noted that they have been talking in Traces about debt as one of the biggest problems in the economy “for years, debt is like a chip that economies have to grow,” he said.
Likewise, they assert that each time they come out of crises with greater indebtedness and lower growth in productivity and real wages.