Step by step: How a coup was avoided in Guatemala

(Washington, United States) after only 48 hours Alejandro Giamatti No longer President of Guatemala, the State Department imposed sanctions on him banning him and his children from entering the United States due to their presence “Reliable information” about “bribery” Which you received. But this, which seems to be an extreme measure, is in fact A natural result of a large number of political and diplomatic actions undertaken by the Joe Biden administration to help Bernardo Arevalo take over the government This week, exactly as citizens decided and contrary to what some local authorities are trying to do.

During his final hours in government, Giamatti was already faced with harsh news from the North: His son Alejandro was deported from Miami on the same day he stopped serving as president. According to Utah Republican Senator Mike Lee, who is close to the former president, Giamatti Jr. attempted to enter the United States and was detained there.

The United States took the previous step last month, when it also designated it as a corrupt actor Miguel MartinezHe is a former official in his government. Although this may seem like an action against a minor actor, it was largely a nod given Martinez's personal closeness to the president. The outgoing Guatemalan government knew how to encrypt this message: The United States' patience has run out.

The fact is that at the beginning of the long process of elections and transition, in which an attempt was made to prevent Arevalo from gaining access to government, the United States played a very important role, which escalated. First, there was direct criticism of the judicial system, especially the Ministry of Public Affairs, which was the implementing arm of the destabilization attempts.

But later, When he saw that Giamatti – whom the Biden administration described as an ally for some time – was doing nothing to prevent or question the coup attempts, he began to separate from the president and put pressure on him.

As he knew information, The diplomatic and political work of the United States was conducted both openly and covertly. During all these months. The United States is of fundamental importance to Guatemala because it is, among other things, its main trading partner. 40% of exports go to the United States, and there are more than 3 million Guatemalans living in that country, receiving $19 billion in remittances each year. For this reason, every gesture or action undertaken by the United States Government carries great weight in Guatemalan politics.

A week before leaving power, Giamatti was in Washington to speak before the Permanent Council of the Organization of American States. For the first time he spoke against the United States and said there it was He threatened By the US government.

The first step the United States took to defend democracy in Guatemala was made with an almost imperceptible gesture: funding, through the Organization of American States, an electoral observation mission that was located in the Central American country. The first and second presidential rounds.

The OAS Mission Control Mission, as well as the EU mission, were key to avoiding the first attempts at destabilization. Through complaints that were later proven to be unfounded, they tried to remove Arevalo and the Similla movement from the race, who, since their voting intention was less than 5% according to all opinion polls, were neither objected nor excluded from the race. Race like the other candidates.

Arevalo ran a campaign that placed the fight against corruption at the center of his rhetoric. In the first round he managed to sneak into second place behind former First Lady Sandra Torres (Or in third place if the most frequently chosen option is considered to be a blank or voided vote). And so Arevalo entered the runoff, despite attempts to get him out of the way.

In the second roundWhere the OAS was also present, it was his victory The result was overwhelming with 60% of the votes. This is despite the fact that the Public Ministry, led by Attorney General Consuelo Porras, has already initiated a series of moves to remove him from the race through judicial means.

Porras, who has already been classified by the United States in 2022 as a “corrupt actor,” is a personal friend of Giamatti, according to what the former president said some time ago.

Since then, the pressure exerted by the United States, as well as the entire Organization of American States, has been very strong. The main representative at the OAS was Ambassador Frank Mora. With harsh speeches and proposals and then lead negotiations until the organization issues statements about the situation in the Central American country.

In particular, through the embassy but also through Trips by senior State Department officials such as Under Secretary Jose Fernandez and Under Secretary Brian Nichols, as well as a bicameral congressional delegation led by Senator Tim Kaine. In addition, Vice President Kamala Harris, who is responsible for relations with Central American countries, made a phone call with Arevalo. He expressed his government's support and his intention to cooperate in his anti-corruption agenda.

However, Porras and his team continued their movements to try to stop Arevalo's inauguration.

In their talks with Giamatti's government, US authorities received the same message that the Guatemalan Foreign Ministry had given publicly: they confirmed that the transfer of command would occur normally in January, and that it had nothing to do with the actions of the prosecution.

As time passed and actions against the Simela movement increased, pressure from the United States also increased. The Organization of American States, which played a leading role in this crisis, sent three different missions throughout the months it was in the country. One of them was even led by Secretary-General Luis Almagro, who traveled to the country on several occasions.

The pressure increased, but the silence of Giamatti and his team did not change. His government's response was that although they had nothing to do with the actions of the Prosecutor's Office, they would not do anything to interfere with them either.

This silence and inaction were so fundamental that the United States and the majority of the countries of the continent that were involved began to firmly believe that behind the destabilizing actions against Arevalo and his party was the hand of the outgoing government.

In the absence of elements to believe this, some of the actions of the outgoing ruling party in Congress ended up confirming the hand of the Giamatti government behind these actions.

The story had a happy ending in the judicial arena because the Constitutional Court protected Semilla and Arevalo, allowing the transfer. But even in Congress, Giamatti's party made it difficult for him to hold office until the last minute The outgoing president did not attend until the change of leadership.

In an article published last week, the Central America Director at the Washington Office on Latin American Affairs (WOLA), Ana María Méndez Dardon, noted how… “Strong support from the international community”, especially the United States, was essential for Arevalo to assume the presidency despite the destabilizing attempts.

“The Similla Movement Party has maintained an ongoing dialogue with the Biden administration and the US Congress, reaffirming Arevalo’s commitment to collaborative efforts to promote democracy, development and good governance. “The United States government has shown its support, among other actions, by imposing sanctions on anti-democratic actors,” Méndez Dardon wrote.

Months ago, in an interview with informationand a WOLA expert has highlighted how to do this Immigration policies impact the bilateral relationship between the United States and Guatemala And why, in his opinion, the defense of democracy carried out by the Biden government throughout the post-election process was “justified” after some “wrong” messages from the past. “There were calls with Giamatti saying they were great structural partners, because of immigration issues, but without mentioning the justice problems in the country. In the electoral process, he claimed to call things by their names,” Mendez Dardon said.

The Biden administration recognizes that immigration issues must also be addressed by supporting countries to stop the reasons that push citizens to leave their countries of origin. Corruption is one of the reasons, along with lack of opportunities, that many Guatemalan migrants cite when explaining their reasons for leaving their country.