Invex does not see that Mexico can fall into a recession this year or the next, despite its very close relationship with the United States, where the economy has already experienced two consecutive quarters of contractions, and this is expected to happen. It continues this way.. the year in the face of high inflation levels and increases in interest rates.
Ricardo Aguilar, chief economist at Invex Banco, explained that they expect, for this year, GDP growth of 1.2%, taking into account the impact of the recession in the United States on Mexico. Next year, growth will accelerate to 1.5 percent.
A month ago we had a very close recession in the US, and we included it in our estimate of 1.2% growth, while the consensus rose to 2.0%. We see recession hitting Mexico, especially in 2022,” he said in a video press conference.
Should the US Federal Reserve continue to raise interest rates the following year, the chief economist at Invex warned that the growth estimate for 2023 may be revised downward, due to the effects on the Mexican economy.
Regarding the effects on Mexico regarding the recession in the United States, Ricardo Aguilar indicated that it will affect the commercial side as well as the remittances that Mexican families receive; However, the latter will not stop reaching.
‘Peak inflation’ can be seen until September
On inflation, Invex’s chief economist explained that “peak inflation”, that is, the highest level of inflation that will appear this year, can be seen between August and September.
Between August and September we will see maximum annual inflation in Mexico, around 8.5% according to our calculations. From there, it will drop to 8.25% at the end of the year.
Thus, headline inflation will close well above the Banxico target of 3% +/- 1 percentage point. For the following year, it will be at 5.15%, according to Invex.
In the latest reading, corresponding to the first half of July, consumer prices rose 8.16% year over year, the highest level since January 2001.
A day earlier, economists Banxico consulted each month estimated inflation would close the year at 7.83%.
