How was the budget cake distributed | CESO published an analysis of the 2022 budget approved by decree

The 2022 budget That the government formalized through Decree 331/22 not only sets out new macroeconomic forecasts for GDP, growth and inflation. It also gives an account – although it is being quickly amended – of the government’s roadmap and priorities in terms of economic policy. In this key, it is important to highlight a file Increases in the fields of education, science, technology and agriculture. items Minor updates are social assistance, food and housing policies.

The government has reformulated its spending estimate based on new macroeconomic forecasts that would point to a nominal GDP of 76,500,000 million pesos, corresponding to 4 percent real growth and December overall inflation of 57 percent. This amendment has been pending since April 15, the date on which it promised to take effect in its Extended Facility Agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

“Inflation and growth expectations are optimistic,” the economic report confirms budget adjustments prepared by Scalabrini Ortiz Study Center (CESO) Which analyzes the new budget and allows the calculation of the government’s roadmap for this year.

Of the five states with the largest budget allocated – Labor, Economy, Treasury Obligations, Public Debt, and Social Development – The Ministry of Social Development has less than average reallocation (30.8 percent). The liabilities responsible for the treasury witnessed the largest increase (81.1%).

In line with this, the General Budget Services Office (CESO) highlights tiny increases in promotion and social assistance (+30.2 percent), food policies (+33 percent) and housing (+5.4 percent). “Their lower rise is remarkable because they are items that have seen a significant increase in executed expenditures compared to last year, in some cases greater than 100 percent, as in the case of the Food Card and Empower Work program,” the report secured.

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The largest increases were for the Ministry of Education, Science, Technology and Agriculture. The education It increased by 93.7 percent from 4.6 percent to 5.9 percent of the total budget. Farming It also achieved a high relative increase of 87.9 percent, albeit with the same weight in the overall budget and less nominal impact.

A separate paragraph deserves a case Science and Technology, one of the areas usually affected by adjustments involved in agreements with the IMF. A feature of the program signed in March to be able to repay the historic debts taken by Mauricio Macri in 2018 is that it was drawn up as a condition of respecting the Science and Technology Financing Act and complying with Decree 331/22.

In this way, the 121.7 million pesos allocated to this portfolio means an increase of 130 percent compared to the 52.9 allocated in 2021. The law allows for something unprecedented: that the region’s budget is growing within the framework of an agreement with the fund, even reversing the 2016-2019 trend that suffered from cuts every year. The strongest was in 2018 when the region’s real budget fell by 34.5 percent.

Jurisdiction with least ascending difference is Ministry of Territorial Development and HousingAn increase of only 244 million pesos. The Ministry of Health and Tourism They have incurred significant expenses in the context of the pandemic over the past year, so the low increase may be due to this reason. “condition Ministry of Public Workss (19.1 per cent). It is an alert reminiscent of the “reprioritization of public spending” that the IMF included in its June 8 statement,” says CESO.

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in energy, highlights the increase in contributions to Cammesa, where they increased by 66 percent. In parallel, the allocation of programs no longer in force, such as Resolution 46/17, was reduced. In this regard, it is one of the few adjustments made to the budget previously. The home program For social bottles, it’s already up 63.2 percent. However, there are also doubts that some of these items will arrive, both the transfer to Cammesa and contributions to the gas plan that could exceed 80,000 million pesos. It should also be considered that the application Cold Zone Law in large areas of the country.

Freddie Dawson

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