Concern is growing in the ruling party over an electoral outcome that leaves it out of the polls

Leaders who can reach Christina Kirchner They sense that the vice president does not have a hundred percent decision on who will lead the presidential formula. It is true that she usually keeps her electoral decisions secret, even with her own. But the main problem is that the panorama of the ruling party today is very opposite, because there are polls that show the danger that In front of everyone Stay out polled in October. In this context, there is no room for tactical error in ballot design.

Surveys the government receives — its own and those widely circulated on WhatsApp of officials — show a three-thirds scenario, although they are not equal parts. The numbers vary from one poll writer to another and week to week. But a broad reading allows the ruling party to draw a basic conclusion: that the Frente Todos (FDT) is not the first and that it is fighting for second place.

The disparity in poll numbers also indicates that there is no clear preference or electoral alternative that stands out from the rest. However, as he was able to rebuild the nation, there are surveys using the IVR system and the Internet method that show FDT leading Javier Milei and others – head to head – with the ruling party trailing behind in third place.

Until all the candidates are out there, they believe in the government, there’s not going to be a credible picture. This is why names are so important.

Eduardo de Pedro with the trade unionists

There is no longer any doubt that the Minister of the Interior, Eduardo “Wado” de Pedro, whom Cristina endorsed, is doing everything he can to win political size and growth at the polls in order to win the presidential candidacy. The deputy allowed him to play, but the minister now piles up alone, for she has not yet raised her hand.

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Pollsters attending the Home Office offices warn that at the moment De Pedro remains less than 10 points short of voting intent, though he could jump with the vice president’s endorsement. They also told him he had the potential to win training against Daniel Scioli.

However, they know in the Minister’s lair that they may fall by the wayside if the “Wado Plan” does not work with the Underworld’s strategy. He is, at the moment, doing better than Sergio Massa in the polls. It starts from a ground of much greater knowledge and measures better. In addition, in focus groups, they do not attribute direct responsibility to the Minister of Economy for the catastrophic economic situation.

“There is still a deep dilemma in Kirchnerism between going to fight with one or coming back to play a moderate behind who guarantees better ground,” admitted a collaborator working on De Pedro’s “primary campaign”.

From Christina’s recent statements, it’s clear that although she hasn’t lowered the hammer yet, she already has a strategy in her head. In C5N he said the elections would be “three thirds” and, therefore, the key would be to ensure the “floor” that puts Peronism in a second round in October.

In addition, he had already positioned himself as an adversary in his speeches Javier MillyWith the intention of polarizing with the leader of La Libertad Avanza.

A county official with direct access to the Kirchners translated it as follows: “The strategy must be in three phases. In the PASO you have to seek all possible votes and Christina’s ballot must win the internal votes of Peronism. In October we have to Do a complete polarization with Mellie and get into the ballot. In the second round we have to win the public defense.” He added: “If we occupy the second place in the rank of generals, this is a great success.”

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The whole premise of the ruling party assumes that Patricia Bullrich will win her term and in this way the Todos Front will be able to hit the “floor” by amassing the moderate votes. But everyone knows that the complexity of the path is much greater. “If that were the case, it would be very simple, but the markets would work in each case and that would affect the government,” warns an official from Casa Rosada who looks at the big picture.

In addition, it is not yet known how STEP is implemented together for change. There are Peronists who would prefer to see Horacio Rodríguez Larreta at the Casa Rosada before Bullrich, because they believe negotiations will be more flexible and they will have a quieter season on the plain.

Sergio Massa with Maximo Kirchner in ChinaHe presses

What no one doubts is that Christina Kirchner will strive to play comprehensively. “Everything can go wrong, but there is still an obsession with representation. Not giving up the fight is not an option,” said an important worker in suburban Kirchnerism.

However, he realized that not all K leaders have the same level of optimism. Axel (Kiselov) tries to convince Christina that the national elections are hopelessly lost. And Maximo is not the most optimistic, but he believes at this point that the person who really wants to take this place should play for the position of president.

La Campora’s founder was one of those who pressed Kicillof’s option to climb from the province to the national ballot. But, in deep training with the governor of Buenos Aires, he ends up activating the operation in support of De Pedro. With that in place, he travels with Masa to China to mend his strategic alliance with the leader of the Renewal Front.

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There are community chiefs who, alerted by the broadcaster that national suffrage could mean re-election, begin to warn that there is a danger of losing everything. The mayor of a suburb warned that in his district – one of the most Peronist in greater Buenos Aires – he ordered a head-to-head survey and noted the same numbers as in 2015: FDT wins, but with 34 points. He warned that “with these numbers, the province will be lost.”

Meanwhile, Massa was left alone to claim a single candidacy, which seems unlikely at this point. The Minister emphasizes that it is essential to offer the most competitive tickets possible, to prevent markets from anticipating their reaction even before the PASO.

In the next three weeks, Massa must show the results of his trip to China, stop the depletion of reserves, avoid further escalation of the dollar, and travel to the United States to continue convincing the International Monetary Fund to make payments for the year. In the middle, he will lead his party’s conference, the Renewal Front, to establish a position in the face of closing alliances.

The political decisions that Christina and he will make in the next twenty days will have a continuing impact on economic management.

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Freddie Dawson

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