A “turning point” in Türkiye during the era of Erdogan – DW – 04/02/2024

In the recent local elections Türkiye, Held during the Easter holiday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan The Justice and Development Party he leads suffered a major setback. Contrary to its ambitions, the conservative, Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP) not only failed to regain control of Turkey's major cities that it lost in 2019 to the opposition, but has seen its support fade even in smaller capitals.

The main beneficiary of this situation was the centre-left Republican People's Party, which achieved a remarkable victory by obtaining 37.76% of the vote across the country, victorious in 21 small cities and 14 large cities, including Istanbul, Ankara and Turkey. Izmir, Bursa, Adana and Antalya. For its part, the Justice and Development Party obtained 35.48% of the votes, positioning itself for the first time in the party’s history as the second most popular force in the country.

The recent municipal elections were explained As a referendum on Erdogan’s administration, Who is not used to dealing with such major setbacks. In an unusual intervention due to his lack of enthusiasm on Sunday afternoon, Erdogan speaks to his followers Who were surprisingly frustrated. In his speech, he stressed that the electoral process is a positive indicator of democracy in Turkey, without issuing any warnings to the opposition.

“Unfortunately, we did not get the results we wanted,” Erdogan told the crowd gathered at the AKP headquarters in Ankara. “Of course we will respect the nation's decision.”

He added that there will be a critical evaluation of the defeat, noting that it is not the end for the Justice and Development Party. On the contrary, it will serve as a “turning point.”

Türkiye's economic problems are responsible for the AKP's losses

According to experts, the government's economic strategy, including the insistence on keeping interest rates low, failed to stop the rise in inflation rates or the loss of purchasing power, which played an important role in the electoral competition.

“It was precisely the tense economic situation that was the decisive factor in the AKP’s poor performance,” said Selim Çevik, a Turkey expert at the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

During the parliamentary and presidential election campaigns a year ago, Erdogan distributed many “sweets”, including to retirees and low-income people. “This time, with state coffers empty, he could not afford them, which led to his defeat,” Çevik told DW.

All eyes on Istanbul

Erdogan's main concern was Istanbul, a city with a population of 16 million, which represents the center of 20% of national employment and is responsible for more than half of Turkish exports and imports. Istanbul, along with Ankara, Izmir, Adana, Antalya and Muğla, contributes to nearly half of the country's economic output.

For Erdogan, who was mayor of Istanbul between 1994 and 1998, the city represents not only an economic stronghold but also a symbol of political power, so much so that he said: “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey.”

However, despite mobilizing state resources, the government failed to stop the CHP's advance at the polls, especially in major cities such as Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir, where the party won significant advantages.

in Istanbul, Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, The Republican People's Party retained its position, declaring that these elections are the beginning of democratic revitalization in Türkiye.

The CHP's victories not only strengthen İmamoğlu's position as a potential opponent to Erdogan in the upcoming presidential election, but also highlight a politically divided Turkey, where İmamoğlu has been able to attract voters from diverse ideological spectrums.

Now, according to Emre Erdogan, a professor of political science at Istanbul's Bilgi University, both İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş are emerging as potential presidential figures.

It is not the end of the AKP

Although some believe that these results do not indicate the final decline of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, the presence of Imamoglu poses a major challenge. Specifically, his conservative personality, charisma, and ability to mobilize voters make him an attractive figure not only for urban conservative Islamists and Turkish nationalists, but also, by not being a polarizing figure, a viable candidate for many urban Kurds.

On the other hand, the New Welfare Party, led by Fatih Erbakan, emerged as a major force in these elections, achieving victories without aligning with Erdogan, which is likely to reduce support for the AKP.

Thus, the presence of this conservative nationalist alternative could limit the influence of Erdogan, who would likely seek a future alliance with the new Welfare Party, even though that would mean important concessions on the part of the Turkish president.

(little/elm)