What if only 3 million people decided who the next president of the United States would be?

They call him Swingland: The land of those They balancelike on a swing (that means Swinging), Between supporting a Democratic or Republican candidate. There are very few people in a country of over 340 million people: total 3 million voters in key states To define Electoral collegeIt is the body that effectively elects the president, in the United States, as the system is indirect.

And there, in Swingland, the 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a titanic showdown. Competition between potential candidates, current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump – in rematch Of which there will be no resale of tickets, so the public is little excited by the idea of ​​seeing the same showdown from 2020 again – one that could be decided by nearly 3 million voters, less than 1% of the population. With this power, this small group of voters also has the ability to influence crucial global decisions, from the handling of the climate crisis to continued support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

In the 2020 electionsSeven states were analyzed with a margin of victory of less than 3%. Mother Jones: Georgia (0.3%), Pennsylvania (1.2%), Michigan (2.8%), wisconsin (0.6%), Arizona (0.4%), Snowfall (2.4%) and North Carolina (1.3%), and Biden won six of them. These states that make up Swingland are likely to be where elections will be decided again.

Despite the billions of dollars spent on election campaigns, the decision will fall on them, meaning that the decision will fall on the shoulders of nearly 3 million undecided voters, according to the newspaper's estimates. Many of them are not deeply involved in the country's political debate, which presents a challenge for political strategists seeking to influence their votes.

In the last elections, the number of voters in Swingland reached about 30.6 million voters, with a very close distribution of votes between Biden and Trump. Although the total number of voters in these key states remains constant, the specific pool of undecided voters can vary from election to election due to multiple factors, such as changes in the number of eligible voters, differences in party loyalty, and the unique dynamics of each election. Including an electoral cycle. The number of 3 million undecided voters represents an estimate based on polls indicating this About 10% of voters in Swingland are undecided about their vote.

To win the 2024 elections, Biden He needs to win in at least four of the key states, barring major upsets in others. If you win in three, you must do so in the combination that gives you At least 41 electoral votes; For example, the combination of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin presents itself as a viable path for him. For this part, Trump card Requires victory in a variety of four of these nations that add up 54 electoral votes, although the four case sets do not achieve this goal. Both candidates, aware of the split in preferences among Swingland voters, face the challenge of attracting the attention and favor of these voters. hesitant In those countries, whose tendency can be decisive in determining which of the two it will be He will occupy the White House between 2025 and 2029.

Campaign teams' research focuses on identifying undecided voters and building social networks that can be used to reach them with election-related messages. In addition, special attention is paid to Women in rural and suburban areasAnd also Young African Americans In these major countries.

For the Biden and Trump campaigns, the 2024 election appears framed in apocalyptic terms, with recriminations ranging from Trump's assertion that Biden's reelection would lead to the annihilation of the United States, to Biden and his allies' warnings of the dangers. Trump challenges American democracy. Months of intense exchange of attacks are expected to wear down the opponent.