The latter part of June will find the economic team with a major goal on the agenda, which will be the closure of a Technical negotiation With the IMF, which has already lasted for more than two months. In that, he has not yet finished defining, after some pointers, How many dollars Body will be sent, under What are the conditions And What use The Ministry of Economy can grant them to counter exchange pressure.
The horizon of talks with IMF staff was approaching key dates, That seemed far away a few weeks ago. Wednesday and Thursday are the dates laid out in the program’s roadmap with the agency to implement the toughest quarter-end push, from $921 million Wed and who $1.779 billion Thursday.
Official sources let it be known that since the negotiations are still open, there will be no full payment of these obligations, but a partial payment – it turns out that it will be. $1.7 billioncoinciding with the second tranche of that accrual, though not confirmed by the economy- and the rest It will be canceled at the end of the month.
at that time Sergio Massa He hopes that he has closed the technical consensus with the staff of the organization that he will leave in writing what the new edges will be and along which the government’s economic policy will move in the coming months with respect to the commitment to Accumulating reserves, reducing the primary deficit, and reducing the monetary problem. And, most importantly, how it will re-route payments and special drawing rights (DEG) payments that still have to be transferred from Washington to Buenos Aires.
In total $14 billion between shipments planned for the remainder of 2023 and the smaller portion that corresponds to 2024, the year in which they were dispensed in the original calendar 3.2 billion dollars. As it happened, the advance drafts that the Monetary Fund can award will have two reference dates: June and September.
Continuation of the open line between the capitals of Argentina and North America, at about the present time in the talks chaired by the two sides of Massa in relation to the IMF – who are the vice minister Gabriel Rubinstein and senior advisor Leonardo Madkourwhose office on the fifth floor of the Palacio de Hacienda, attached to the office of the Minister of the Economy, serves as a negotiating hideout – he expanded the definition of the day when the round trip will go to a face-to-face instance.
Will this be consistent evidence of progress in the give and take. At first, there was speculation about a flight officials took this past weekend, as that version lost steam with hours in favor of the same Monday as the day of the flight, but in the end it was left without a date. “they travel When virtual conversations endThey limited themselves to explaining in the last hours of the economy.
The delay in defining deadlines extends beyond the end of the month for IMF payments. Traditionally, once a technical agreement is reached with the staff, that team It takes two weeks To prepare the report to be submitted to the Board of Directors, which is ultimately the body that will make the final decision.
Those who know the internal dynamics of the IMF confirm that shaking hands with staff implies a Council approval, which is occupied by the major shareholders of the fund and who have more of a political element when it comes to raising their hands in the vote. The position of the United States, the only country with veto power in the Governing Council, will end up being decisive in this verification.
Within this framework, primary deficit data for the public sector will be released on Thursday, which is one of the numbers that the International Monetary Fund is following closely. By special estimates, the rate of public spending in the fifth month of the year was less than the variance in inflation, which is why, in practice, it was royal downfall.
This was indicated by a report from the consulting firm Analytica, which tracks open budget data, which includes accrued expenseContrary to the information published by the Treasury Department monthly – to be announced next week – which includes Basic cash account. This distinction means that it does not take into account, for example, variable debt or late payments.
According to Analytica, in May real expenses accrued without seasonality Decreased $33,351 million (-1.4%) Compared to April while in the year-over-year comparison, real spending decreased by a 12.8%, they pointed out. In addition, they explained that if spending on energy subsidies is excluded from the calculation, then the difference will be 15.3 percent.
“We estimate that during the month of May Tax revenues continued to decline In real terms it was affected by the lower collection related to foreign trade despite the fact that the collection from deductions per month had a positive effect of the validity of the soybean dollar,” LCG estimated for its part.
We understand that spending has continued to keep pace with this dynamic, trying to reflect a certain commitment to the convergence agreed with the IMF. Our estimate for May implies a revision of about 10% annually measured in real terms. Despite this, the initial deficit will outweigh $250,000 millionwhich means accumulation Red by 0.7% of GDP in 5 months of the yearConsidered the advisor.