According to economists from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) A sharp slowdown in the US economy is expected next year.Despite the latest GDP growth data of 5.2% at the end of the third quarter of this year.
In this regard, NABE President, Ellen Zentner, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in the United States, noted: “The NABE Outlook Survey panel forecasts a stronger outlook for U.S. economic growth in 2023 Compared to the October forecast survey, but respondents expect growth to slow to 1% between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to figures from the Commerce Department published at the end of November, the US economy grew at a faster rate than expected, indicating strong resilience despite the high inflation rate and the Federal Reserve’s strategies to increase inflation rates. Interest rates are at the highest levels to control inflation and reach 2%.
But specialists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta indicate that by the fourth quarter of 2023 GDP is expected to slow to 1.2% due to a slowdown in spending such as construction and manufacturing.
Previous GDP reports show the increase was driven in part by upward revisions in government and business spending that also added to summer travel, which hit a record this year.
but, Three out of four economists consulted see a 50% or less chance of a recession next year. Currently, employment and unemployment growth data are expected to be presented on Friday, with the latter expected to remain at 3.9%. By the end of this year.
On the other sideThe inflation report will be presented next Tuesday, December 12, and some economists expect it to decline by 3.1%. While the base rate, which does not include volatile food and energy prices, remained at 4%.
According to Mervyn Jebaraj, director of the Center for Business, Economics and Research at the University of Arkansas, “Committee members expect a further slowdown in core inflation. Excluding food and energy costs, but they doubt it will reach the Fed’s 2% target before the end of 2024.
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