Elections in the United States: “It’s the stupid economy”

In February 2017 when Donald Trump He won in Presidential elections in the United States He wrote that the ideas of the then newly elected United States president on economic and trade matters presented a combination of “Streaming economy“(Reagan’s indirect effect) by betting on Cut taxes on the wealthy and corporationsbut at the same time, unlike Reagan, A Protectionist policy through tariff barriers direct and indirect, and at the same time implement “Keynesian stimulus“during Infrastructure works (something that was never implemented). After five years, The Democratic Party’s policies are similar in some aspects to Trump’s policies in those years. While those The Republican Party (or what’s left of it) has become radicalized.

Biden It does not encourage the elimination of competition (protectionism) but it does “exclude”Unfair competition““Now, we’ll have to see what counts.”Unfair competition“). So far China tops the list of countries that will be subjected to sanctions due to its legislation and practicesBut we can say that any country can fall within this definition.

he the Republican Party Yet Trump is not opposed “Trade agreements” But he says he loves them Renegotiation (After all, his book is “The art of making deals“). On both ends Distrust of globalization that have characterized the past fifteen years.

It can be said that today is a form New commercial Which encourages aid to exports and limits or penalizes imports. America first also “Make America Great Again” They are just similar terms “Win or lose”. If America wins, there is no doubt that some country will lose in the commercial sense. The same applies to general knowledge When tariff barriers are created, as many sectors celebrate, consumer products become more expensive. Who pays the cost? There is an inflationary effect. Same thing with “Made in USA“There is no doubt that this will lead to an increase in internal costs.

With the rising cost of living, Inflation is not reflected in general indicators, but it affects basic consumption (Transportation, food, rent, education) and does not accompany salary increases and income does not grow. I’ve read that It is estimated that the income of the middle and lower classes has fallen by 20% in recent years. It is true that there is what is considered “full employment” (less than 3%) but it is also true that at least in the big cities there has been and will continue to be rationalization due to the influence of technology, new forms of work and competition.

In his last book,Algebra of wealthScott Galloway, Professor of Business Administration at New York University’s Stern School of Business States For the first time in the United States, a 30-year-old has a lower standard of living than his or her parents.

They look up, and they see wealth, extraordinary wealth in previous generations and in people in certain industries and services, but in reality they are They are struggling and do not see the light at the end of the tunnel. Your purchasing power decreases Universities create artificial scarcity On campus. According to Galloway, they are proud to reject 90% of applicants until the value of the degree/diploma increases. Therefore, those who have already obtained a degree benefit as the value of the degree/diploma increases.

Something similar happens with housing.. Those who already own them benefit because home prices have risen from 290 to 420 in the past four years. But for young people, the equity in the homes they don’t own is rising to an unattainable value.

These factors will have a decisive impact on the elections. It is likely that the famous phrase “The economy is stupid” will define this year’s elections as well.