Madrid, 15 (European press)
French bank BNP Paribas estimates growth in Spain at 4.3% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023, although it expects the Spanish economy to enter a technical recession by declining 0.4% in the fourth quarter of this year and 0.2% in The first year to come.
As for other neighboring countries, the bank estimates that France will grow 2.3% this year and 0.5% next year, and Germany will grow 1.4% and 0.4%, respectively.
The French bank notes in a recent report that a recession in Europe is “inevitable” in the last quarter of this year, although it will not be very deep thanks to public sector support.
The company lowered its global growth forecast for this year to 3%, the same as the expected number for the following year. For its part, the US will grow by 1.8% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023, with a much less negative long-term outlook than that of the old continent.
As for inflation, Spain will close the year with a CPI of 8.9%, a percentage that will drop dramatically in the following years to 4.5% in 2023 and 1.9% the following year, even below the target of the European Central Bank (ECB). ).
Germany’s inflation will be 8.1% this year and 4.7% next year, while France’s will be 5.8% in 2022 and 4.2% the next. The US will further adjust its numbers, posting the CPI in 2022 at 7.8% and 3% in 2023.
Turning to the markets, BNP Paribas anticipates continued volatility, especially in Europe and currencies. The bank remains cautious about European stocks and expects corporate earnings to be revised down, while maintaining neutrality on US stocks.