What’s at stake for Gabriel Buric and the right-wing opposition in Chile’s constitutional referendum on Sunday

(from Santiago, Chile) After more than four years of founding process and failed attemptOn Sunday, 15.4 million Chileans will again attend the polls on a mandatory basis to decide whether to maintain the current constitution (“against”) or ratify the new Magna Carta proposal (“for”), this time written by a right-wing majority. And according to surveys, He has everything to lose.

As expected, Expectations Made by those who wrote and supported this new proposal Vary diagonally If he wins “for” or “against”, according to a report by the digital newspaper “Almostrador”.

For some former constitutional advisors of the ruling party, if they win the option “Favor” It is possible that there will be an increase in underlying social conflicts, as – they point out – citizen dissatisfaction will continue. Moreover, many expect A Long implementation process For the new constitution, which does not guarantee certainty in the political and economic scenario.

Alejandro Koller, former Socialist ChancellorHe believes that “if ‘for’ is imposed, the essence of the text imposed by the right’s circumstantial majority under the dominance of the Republican Party will lead to the polarization of the country, because the exclusion of other democratic ideas will lead to political and democratic continuity.” Social crises.”

Something similar arises Former computer consultant, Karen Araya. “If the vote for wins, the proposal will perpetuate the abuses of big business and setbacks of what has been achieved through the struggle of the Chilean people in legislative matters,” he says.

In this way, they both expect the constitutional debate to remain open, because although they seek changes to the text from Congress in the future, they maintain that The adjustments won’t be easyThis is due to the large quorum required by the proposed new Basic Charter.

“I hope that the For party will not win because a chaotic and unstable scenario is coming in our country, a scenario in which there will be many problems in the implementation of this constitution regarding the transitional rules (…) A lot is coming Political instability “Congress is going to have to do a lot of work to make this really work,” says Democratic Party Representative Kintoray Mellen.

On the other hand, the same representatives assert that if the “against” option – which they are defending – wins, the government and Congress will have to address legislative emergencies that have been pending in Congress for months. In this scenario, they warn that the executive would, necessarily, It must seek legislative consensus With the opposition to move forward with its government’s programme.

A victory for “against” would avert the acute risks of polarization and political instability. With the exclusion of a third constitutional moment, a space of national unity will be opened to confront the crisis facing our country in areas such as social security, the health and education system, housing, abuses, and corruption in the public and private system. “Private, among other unresolved issues that led to the crisis that affects us today,” says Alejandro Coller.

Kinturai Melin He adds that if the “opposition” party wins, the concerns will continue, so in Congress and “in the political community, they will have to take care of the urgent needs of our citizens, and for this reason, we will work on” the need “for all political sectors to show real consensus this time, and they can Also to show some kind of partnership, as was the case before and was not present in this process.”

The expectations of right-wing parties are the opposite. Even some analysts from the opposition bloc consider so The two scenarios -Victory “for” or one “against”- It will have repercussions that are not in the government’s favorUnless the second option wins at the ballot box.

The above – they explain -, because None of the alternatives will leave the left unscathed: They will be left without a constitution to their satisfaction, or, in the end, after the rejection of the text is imposed, they will have to explain why none of the processes have worked, and they must stay with what they have.

They point out that in addition, a “for” success or narrow victory will be interpreted as a victory The victory of the conservative sector On progressivism, in circumstances where the social outbreak that generated the process protested against the winning sector.

However, former representatives of Chile Vamos and the Republican Party in the constitutional process predict that he is in for a win ” Favor “, The process of implementing the standards will be limited, and this is what the country will do -Less social and economic uncertainty. Likewise, they estimate that with a victory for the “proponents” a debate on some constitutional amendments could be opened by Congress, but not in the short term.

Former RN party commissioner, Teodoro Ribera, sums it up like this: “If the ‘In Favor’ team wins, the stabilizing factor obviously becomes longer. If rejection wins, the stabilizing factor becomes shorter and more ambiguous.”

“If the ‘for’ vote wins, the government must start implementing laws that are compatible with the implementation of the new Constitution. The text incorporates much of our constitutional tradition, which removes uncertainty. We will legislate according to the transitional criteria for at least three years, but The adjustments we have to make are very limited, because here it is not the country that is being reestablished, but rather a large part of the institutions that we know continue to function as they are,” he says. Bettina Horst, former Expert Commissioner at UDI.

“With the victory of ‘for’, we must quickly begin working on the laws necessary to implement the constitution, and we must implement them, as quickly as possible… If there are things that need to be reformed, they must be taken into consideration.” . But my priority will be to implement all the new things so there will be more stability and certainty as well.” Former Evopoli councilor, Gloria Huot.

On the other hand, representatives of the right expect that if the “against” option wins, the risk of “continuing social and economic uncertainty” due to the failure to close the constitutional chapter is high. Although they imagine it Most likely, the left will have to be content with the 1980 Constitution. – It was reformed by President Lagos in 2005 – despite all the criticism leveled at it for years.

Former Commissioner Ribera believes that with the victory of “against”, the leftist parties “will have to be content with following the 1980 Constitution even if they do not like its origins.” He believes that in any case, “They will not promote a third immediate operation.”

According to electoral experts from the opposition consulted by El Estrador newspaper, If the “for” option is the dominant option On Sunday at the polls, for Chile Vamos, and especially for the Republican Party, this will be an important victory: They will have managed to reverse the trend in the opinion polls and position themselves as the most likely alternative to the government, both with Mayor Evelyn Mathey (UDI) or with José Antonio Cast.

But they analyze that, If the “opposite” wins, the costs will be great. Experts from the more moderate sectors of the opposition will defend that the CAST sector was primarily responsible for the defeat, because its group led the management of the second operation and obtained a majority in the Constitutional Council. In this sector they argue that there is an opportunity to distance themselves, on the right, from the more conservative positions of Republicans.

The ruling party also points in this direction. With some optimism, they expect Kast’s candidacy to be particularly weak in the eyes of the public for his “advocacy of extremist ideas” and because The Republican Party is going through a process of internal divisionAfter the resignation of the senator from Santiago – and the only representative of the community in the Senate – Reed EdwardsAnd through the call to vote “against” launched by many leaders. In any case, it is expected in both sectors that Kast will come forward to provide clarifications on the outcome and identity of his proposals.

However, the opposition sector warns that, If there is a defeat or victory in which the difference is less than 10 points In examining both options, there will be a perception A political victory for the far rightBecause one reading would be that Kast’s proposal, which represents the minority sector, succeeded in outperforming the alternative defended by the government parties. This, in the face of municipal elections, where “two years before the presidential election, Kast will be left running with the loyal voters he retains.”

In fact, this is what the Broad Front and Social Democracy fear. They assert in the ruling party that if the “opponents” win by a very small margin or “by a margin of 58% versus 42%” of the “supporters,” the Republican Party could interpret this result as a victory. They point out that “it depends on what Chile Vamos does.” “.

“It is important to Audi, RN and Evelyn Matthey An electoral analyst for the Democratic Party says, “They will attribute it to more than 40%, with the origin of that percentage distributed between Chile Vamos and the extreme right, so that the result is not only from a sector of the right.” Socialism.

However, in Chile Vamos, they assert that the majority “Against” will not significantly affect Evelyn Matthey’s political projection, Who will focus on his administration in the municipality of Providencia, and setting the pace of his agenda in matters of security, economics and education. He will also focus on being one of the faces of his coalition’s municipal campaign in the coming months.

They add in the sector near the mayor of Providencia that once the constitutional chapter is closed, They must focus on leading an “opposition with arguments” against the government of Gabriel Buric.