The asteroid Apophis will pass near Earth in 2029 and generate predictions

A new study shows that the asteroid Apophis, famous for being on track to pass by Earth in 2029, may not be something to worry about. Scientists have calculated this This space rock will not collide with other space rocks that could change its orbit in an alarming manner And redirect it towards Earth.

Apophis is a peanut-shaped near-Earth asteroid left over from the formation of our solar system about 4.6 billion years ago. It oscillates back and forth even while rotating on its axis and rotates once every 30 hours. The space asteroid is scheduled to approach Earth on April 13, 2029It passes at a distance of 32 thousand kilometers from the surface of our planet. This event will represent the closest flyby of an asteroid of this size from Earth, which scientists were able to warn about. This is also the time when NASA's OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft, formerly called OSIRIS-REx, is scheduled to rendezvous with Apophis.

Although the 305-meter-wide asteroid does not follow a path that would lead to a collision with our planet (Scientists have confidently ruled out any effect of this type over the next 100 years), until now it was not clear how much its path might be changed, if at all, by collisions with other space rocks. A new analysis that calculated the trajectories of 1.2 million asteroids and comets known to be in our solar system puts this risk at zero.

“Fortunately, such collisions are not expected to occur.” Paul Weigert, lead author of the study and an astronomer at the University of Western Ontario in Canada, said in a statement. “Even now that we know it's on track to miss us by a safe margin, astronomers remain on alert. It's the asteroid we can't stop watching.”

Weigert and his colleague Ben Hyatt of the University of Waterloo in Canada describe the new analysis in a pre-print article that has been accepted for publication in the Planetary Science Journal, according to Space.com.

To reach their conclusions, Weigert and Hiatt analyzed two independent databases that classify the orbits of asteroids and comets in our solar system: one maintained by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the other by the European Space Agency (THAT). after Reduce the list of asteroids and comets whose orbits lie within 0.001 AU of Apophis, The researchers obtained 376 items from the JPL catalog and 396 items from the European Space Agency; More than 300 of these organisms appeared in the two databases.

Selected orbit simulations showed that none of the asteroids or comets studied would directly collide with Apophis before it passes by Earth in April 2029, meaning that It is unlikely that its orbit will be redirected towards our planet.

Weigert and Hyatt found that too Apophis will pass just over 500,000 km from another asteroid called 4544 Xanthus in December 2026. While the two space rocks will not collide, 4544 Xanthus will pass the pair's intersection just four hours after Apophis. “The encounter is close enough that the material accompanying Xanthus (if it exists) could hit Apophis,” according to the new study. “This could lead to disturbance in its future path, which could affect the probability of it colliding with Earth.” However, it is unclear exactly how this material will change the orbit of Apophis, if it happens at all.

Weigert and Hiatt hypothesize that any loose dust particles ejected from the 1.3-kilometre-long Xanthus could collide with Apophis, although only future observations can confirm or deny the presence of material in its orbit. While millimeter-sized particles wouldn't have a significant impact on Apophis's orbit, even a one-centimeter particle, like the bits seen on Bennu, moving at 11 kilometers per second could release energy. “Equivalent to 20 sticks of dynamite,” according to the new study. But future optical observation campaigns, for example, might reveal whether Xanthus has any material in its orbit to begin with.