Carl Schroeder, a hard-read Canadian science fiction writer and author of The Lady of the Mazes, believes that “forecasting is not about predicting the future, it is about minimizing surprise.” This has also been the approach of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve for a long time – and continues to do so, albeit using other methods. (FED) which, by the way, will rule again on interest rates on ThursdayNow with uncertainty over the effects on inflation as to how the US auto strike will be resolved. A noticeable increase in wages would affect prices and give wings to monetary policy hawks in the United States.
Yesterday is Bank of Spain The Sybil Sibyl, run by Pablo Hernandez de Cos, announced the review of his economic forecasts, which he periodically adapts to reality. The previous day, the National Institute of Statistics also published a revision of GDP data for 2021 and 2022, improving the growth of the Spanish economy by 1.3 points. That’s good news, but there’s no need to fire missiles either. Spain recovered its pre-pandemic numbers sooner than expected, but is still at the back of Europe. Similar reviews have been carried out in almost all euro countries, which means that the improvement has been general.
The Bank of Spain, in its analysis of the situation and its forecasts, is above all cautious. Note that GDP showed “greater dynamism in Spain compared to other countries in the euro area”. An explanation with greater weight in the Spanish economy must be sought Services related to hospitality and tourism. All of these results in GDP could end 2023, an increase of 2.3%. Until then, the outlook is favourable. Bank of Spain It is also estimated that GDP growth will decline to 1.8% in 2024 and will reach about 2% in 2025, which is a less optimistic forecast. From the former, which takes into account higher inflation, which could reach 4.3% in 2024, with expectations that it will remain at 1.8% in 2025. Sybil’s oracle, wise, sends her message of ruling out surprises in the real world, not in Schroeder’s science fiction.