Liberalism has arrived at Casa Rosada, but for how long?

After exhausting weeks, debates, attacks from one side to the other, and much debate, Argentines approached the polls and decided who would be the country’s new president. After examining 100% of the tables, the result became clear: more than 55% of the country’s population voted for Javier Miley. Thus, next December 10, Miley will assume the presidency and liberalism will arrive at Casa Rosada after decades of populism and decadence.

Personally, I think that the victory of liberalism in Argentina is very good news. The country has said enough is enough, at least for a while. The Argentine economy is going through one of its worst moments, there is no doubt about it, and instability can no longer be resisted. For this reason, among others, voters chose a different path and brought Miley to the presidency.

However, today more than ever, we have to be careful and use memory to our advantage: since the advent of Peronism there have not been two liberal governments in a row, so we cannot fall into our traps and convince ourselves that liberalism exists. To remain, and this is forever. We have already seen that Argentine politics often works like a pendulum, and what goes today may come back tomorrow.

What does it mean? From my place, I must tell you that we must continue to care about our heritage and we must realize that opposition will be difficult. Nothing lasts forever, at least in politics. That’s why we have to be prepared and not be surprised.

In this sense, I remind those who have already begun to think about benefiting from a future tax amnesty, as reported in various media when Macri launched his amnesty, that the chances are that the AFIP president will become Peronist again in four years. High. So, as I tell you whenever I can, the important thing is to focus on effective asset structuring and think long-term wisely and intelligently.

Although all of this may seem depressing, I want to be cautious and help you prepare for what may lie ahead. Of course, the arrival of liberalism into the Argentine government is good news for the country and the region, but we have already seen that what comes today, goes tomorrow.

So, we don’t have to rest on our laurels and think that liberalism is here to stay forever. it’s not like that. In fact, it is easy to see that the chances of a return to Peronism are high. If some believed in 2015, after Macri’s victory, that Peronism had completely weakened and returned four years later, today, with a 44% support rate after a terrible administration, we cannot consider them depressed and we must know that they are capable of returning.

I hope that doesn’t happen. We hope that we will begin to follow the same trends as developed countries, and that we will be able to move from protecting our assets from state attacks to thinking about how to structure my assets because of liquidity events, or because my company has been sold, or because I am growing, or because I have started to export. But we don’t know that, and the most appropriate thing is to prepare for all possible scenarios, which are very many and diverse in Argentina.

The fact is that assets in Argentina have not grown for a long time. A new phase in estate planning may now have arrived – but that depends on whether liberalism persists in the long term, something we cannot guarantee. So, for optimists, it may be time to plan for growth. On the other hand, these may be times of caution for pessimists, as we must prepare for the eventual return of Peronist government. What is certain is that this is not the time to do nothing in terms of estate planning, as I heard many people felt relieved after Sergio Massa’s defeat.

We will see what the future holds for us. Anyway, let me tell you that it is necessary to get advice and prepare for the different scenarios that we have to face. We already know that Argentina is a surprise box and the only thing we can do to come out as healthy as possible is to prepare.