Elections 2021: From the United States analyzing what is at stake and the possible outcomes

Governance, the ruling party leadership, the opposition and the agreement with the International Monetary Fund are some of the Hubs looking from the United States when evaluating Possible scenarios that the legislative elections will end next Sunday.

Legislative election results It will have important implications for governance over the remaining two years from the president’s term Alberto Fernandez“I assure you Juan Cruz Daz, General Manager of Grupo Cefeidas and Special Adviser to the Council of the Americas (AS/COA), the entity headed by Susan Segal that organizes regular meetings at its headquarters in New York and an annual meeting in Argentina is jointly organized with the local Chamber of Commerce.

judgment

The analysis of those who follow the reality of Latin America within the United States indicates, as a first point, that “The results of the legislative elections will have important implications for governance during the remaining two years of President Alberto Fernandez’s term“They are referring to this in relation to the Together for Change program but also within the ruling front itself.

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If the defeat of the ruling party in the Basu organization is confirmed, the ruling coalition, the Todos Front, will lose its majority in the Senate and relinquish its position as the first minority in the House of Representatives in favor of “Together for Change”, This complicates their ability to rule and pass laws. “The government will have to negotiate with regional allies and small blocs to consolidate its influence,” Diaz says.

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alternative new internal tensions Inside the ruling coalition is lurking in a defeat scenario, according to the analysis prepared for the Council of the Americas. “If the government loses by the same margin or more in an election, these pressures are likely to increase again.‘, he warns.

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“If the Economy Minister, Martin Guzmen, continues in office after next week’s elections, it will be a key indicator of whether the government will change course. and implement a more intrusive agenda,” says Diaz. There is also an interest in “continuing a policy of relative fiscal discipline in an effort to comply with an agreement with the IMF.”

The road to 2023

The analyst notes that The results of these elections will also affect the future presidential elections. In JxC there are many references trying to position themselves.

“It is expected that the President of the City of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodriguez Laretta, compete, while Patricia Bullrich, Whoever occupies political space to Larita’s right as leader of the Republican Proposal Party, also has presidential ambitions. It can also be a file Former President Mauricio Macri Try to run as a coalition candidate,” Diaz says.

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Meanwhile, they pointed out that regarding the Todos Front President Fernandez’s approval rating has not recovered since plummeting before the primaries. Opinion polls vary, but most indicate a negative trend of around 30%.

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local problems

Daz notices it Voters’ main concerns are inflation, unemployment, poverty, crime, insecurity and corruption.

“There are clear differences in priorities depending on the basis of each coalition. Supporters of the Todos Front tend to cite poverty, inflation and unemployment As your main interests, The opposition base gives higher priority to corruption, insecurity and crime. These differences were reflected in the campaigning approaches of the two major alliances.”

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Progress Libertarian Javier Meli In the city did not escape the sight of us. The analyst summed it up: “He became a well-known figure in Argentine public life in recent years and ran for the first time in the primaries in September.” The force came in third place in the city and competed for fifth place at the county level.

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“If the coalition is repeated in the general elections, it will win four seats in the House of Representatives and could become a desirable ally for potential candidates for the US presidency,” he added. Together for change in 2023“Analyst’s comments” La Libertad-Avanza also performed well It could boost numbers like Patricia Bullrich, who is pushing for a coalition shift to the right‘, he adds.

Aileen Morales

"Beer nerd. Food fanatic. Alcohol scholar. Tv practitioner. Writer. Troublemaker. Falls down a lot."

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