Mexico: Sheinbaum leads in opinion polls A few months before the presidential elections

The presidential candidate of the Mexican ruling party, Claudia Sheinbaum, leads with 58% of voting intentionsMore than 20 points ahead of his closest competitor, according to a poll published by the newspaper on Tuesday Reformation He revealed the move towards the June 2 elections.

Sheinbaum, of the ruling Movement for National Renewal (Morena) party. He leads by 24 points This compares to the 34% of votes received by the candidate of the “Power and Heart for Mexico” alliance, Xochitl Gálvez. While Jorge Alvarez Mainz, from the opposition Citizens' Movement, will receive 8% of the votes.

This is the first survey that reveals Reformation After the official start of the presidential election campaigns on March 1. In a December poll, Sheinbaum received 54% of preferences while Gálvez received only 29%, but at the time the Communist Party's candidate was the governor of Nuevo León, Samuel Garcia, who received 17% of support.

Survey details

Regardless of preferences, nearly two out of three voters, or 65%, believe that the ruling party's candidate will win the election.. Furthermore, 64% of voters have a “very good/very good” opinion of Sheinbaum and only 14% have a “bad/very bad” opinion, while 38% have a favorable opinion of Galvez and 26% have an unfavorable opinion. In the case of Mainz, 54% of those surveyed do not know him, 22% have a positive opinion and 13% have a negative opinion.

For CongressMorena receives 46% of support, while the Mexican Green Environmental Party (PVEM) receives 6% and the Workers' Party (PT) receives 4%, thus Morena receives 46% of support. Parties allied with President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador receive 56%.. In the opposition, the National Action Party (PAN) gets 15%, as well as the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), while the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) gets 4%, bringing the total of this coalition to 3.4%. Finally, the Communist Party will receive 8% of the votes, and the independents will receive 2%.

Mexico celebrates the largest elections in its history on June 2, when more than 97 million people are invited to renew 20,375 federal positions, including the presidency, 500 seats in the House of Representatives, and 128 seats in the Senate. As nine state governments.

Immigration problem

Coinciding with the publication of the poll results, Sheinbaum visited the borders of Reynosa, located in the state of Tamaulipas, where he promised that if he wins the elections, he will be closer to whoever is elected president of the United States. He added, “We will insist that whoever President Trump or President Biden is, whoever (the Americans) decide who their president is, we will get closer and closer.” “We will work on what we believe is the comprehensive solution to the general migration problem, which is cooperation for development,” he said. In a press conference.

Morena's candidate indicated that if she became president of Mexico, she would support migrants in the border areas until they receive humanitarian treatment. He explained: “We will support migrants, but we will continue to insist that the main solution is to avoid migration.” She stressed that development cooperation will be the main migration policy she will pursue with her northern neighbour.

Immigration has become a relevant issue in the electoral context due to the unprecedented migration influx in recent years in the region, with Mexico recording an almost 77% increase in irregular migration in 2023, with more than 782,000 detected. US authorities arrested 124,220 illegal immigrants at the border With Mexico in January, which represented a 50% decrease from the record high recorded in December, according to Customs and Border Protection.

“Coordination yes, dependency no”

This is not the first time Sheinbaum has spoken publicly about the immigration issue as part of the campaign. On March 3, he asked Trump and Biden to prevent the immigration issue from dominating their election campaigns. “Do not use the immigration issue as a central issue in the elections in the United States, especially against Mexican women and men,” the candidate said at a press conference from Ciudad Juarez.

Two days ago, before tens of thousands of supporters gathered in the Zocalo, the country's main public square, the front-runner in opinion polls said her eventual government would be “respectful” to the United States, of which Mexico is its largest trading partner. . Sheinbaum stressed, “There will always be good intentions for coordination, but it is also up to us to demand respect for sovereignty. Coordination yes, subordination no. We will never bow our heads.”.

A loyal companion of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador for two decades also stated that Mexican foreign policy would follow the constitutional principles of “self-determination, non-interference, and fraternity,” in a context in which the country declared itself neutral against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.