From Rio de Janeiro
In the most comprehensive survey of cases, Lula outperformed Bolsonaro. The survey conducted by XP / Ipespe, at the same time, points to the reasons for the change. When he regained his political rights – Although he always confirms that he is not a candidate, and that he will only deal with 2022 issues in 2022- His name immediately became part of the surveys. In all, Lula defeats Jair Bolsonaro. This allows for a wider panoramic view of the Brazilian political situation.
In the Bolsonaro government’s assessment, the trend is clearly unfavorable. In 2021 alone, the government lost eight pointsThe bad and the terrible rating rises from 40 to 48%, while the optimal and good qualification rises from 32 to 27%. In terms of the way Bolsonaro is governing, the percentage of disapproval has risen from 50 to 60%, while the percentage of approval has risen from 40 to 33%.
Regarding the trajectory of the Brazilian economy, the notion that it is on the wrong track rises from 50 to 65%, while the opinion that it is on the right path drops from 39 to 23%.
Regarding the impact of the Coronavirus, those who fear deeply moved from 39 to 55%. Those who fear little went from 36 to 28%, while those who were not afraid decreased from 24 to 17%.
It is not surprising, then, that the electoral scenario was unfavorable for BolsonaroRather, more than the moment Lula returned fully to political life. In the first round, Lula’s percentage increased from 25 to 29%, while Bolsonaro’s percentage increased from 27 to 28%. All the rest are far off, at 9% or less.
In the second round, Lola’s level increased from 40 to 42%, while Bolsonaro’s decreased from 40 to 38%. When asked about a possible ballot between Lula and Sergio Moro, the Labor leader won by 41 to 36%.
Surveys are images of a particular moment, but the most important thing is projected future trends. Lula is clearly on the rise while Bolsonaro is sluggish. In surveys where rejection levels are measured, Lula had less rejection, with a tendency to decrease. On the contrary, Bolsonaro has a high degree of rejection and a prone to going up.
Elections are scheduled for October 2022. The polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro will not fail to overcome the electoral dispute. The other candidates – starting with Cerro Gomez – dropped their vote intent. Psol is already discussing the possibility of supporting Lola in the first round. Other parties are also studying this possibility.
Lula has more legal obstacles than political obstacles to becoming the new president of Brazil. The plenary session of the Supreme Federal Court has yet to rule, once again, on Judge Sergio Moro’s impartiality and the full restoration of Lula’s rights. Political conditions are already largely favorable for Lula.