he Global Warmingwhich celebrates its World Awareness Day this Sunday, has become a cause for increasing concern, considering this 2023 has been confirmed as the hottest year on record The global average annual temperature is expected to rise this year For the first time, it exceeds the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission, reported in early January that 2023 was the hottest year globally, according to various criteria that are beginning to emerge. It was measured in 1850.
Thus the average surface air temperature was reached 14.98°C last yearexceeding the 2016 level by 0.17 degrees Celsius, which so far holds the record for the hottest year.
After record conditions for 2023, decadal forecasts recently published by the Climate Variability and Change Group of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) reveal that average annual temperatures on the planet's surface in 2024 pIt can exceed that of the previous periodIt will continue to increase in the following years as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue, according to a cable from the Spanish scientific news agency Sinc.
Their estimates indicate that the average annual temperature of the planet's surface will be in 2024 It will be between 1.43 and 1.69 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.
Climatologists from the Climate Variability and Change (CVC) group of the BSC's Earth Sciences Division have announced their forecasts for the next ten years, i.e. for the period from 2024 to 2033.
The BSC's decadal prediction system predicts that the planet's average annual surface temperature in 2024 will be between 1.43 and 1.69 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels (defined as the average temperature between 1850 and 1900). With a central estimate of 1.54°C.
This means that temperatures in 2024 will likely be higher than in 2023 and that there is a high probability (a) 74%) that the global average annual temperature exceeds the 1.5°C threshold compared to pre-industrial levels for the first time.
The rise in temperature is mainly due to the continued emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere due to human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels.
El Niño conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean, which are expected to peak in the winter of 2023 to 2024, are also contributing to exceptionally warm global average temperature conditions.
Surface temperatures are expected to continue to rise over the next ten years in response to continuing greenhouse gas emissions.
“Our decadal prediction system allows us to predict annual changes and long-term warming trends, taking into account the effects of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions, as well as natural fluctuations inherent in the climate system,” said Roberto Bilbao, the study’s lead researcher. The person responsible for BSC decadal forecasting.
The BSC forecast system predicts that over the next two decades (2024-2028 and 2029-2033), average global temperatures could reach between 1.49 and 1.79 degrees Celsius, or 1.67 and 1.94 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels. respectively.
Despite possible changes between years, in which certain years may be slightly warmer or cooler than previous years, the global climate remains on a worrying trajectory, bringing us closer to failing to meet the goals agreed by world leaders in Paris in 2015,” explains Professor Ikeria and co-leader of the BSC CVC group, Markus Donat.
Global or terrestrial global warming is the worsening increase in temperature over the entire surface of the Earth that occurs over the years and is the result of various human activities that affect the environment such as deforestation or overexploitation of soil.
For this reason, every year, January 28 is celebrated as the International Day of Action against Global Warming, also called the International Day for Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions or CO2 Emissions.
Carbon dioxide is a gas that is concentrated in the Earth and is essential to the biological process in nature and necessary to maintain the balance and well-being of life.
However, in recent decades, its concentration in the atmosphere has increased significantly associated with the activities of industrial society, causing significant imbalances in the planet's climate.
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