Although the signals regarding the exchange rate development for this year were the great absence in the speech Alberto Fernandez In the opening session of Congress, the question is: If the government has the opportunity to extend “Peace exchange”, A key in an election year with an inflationary context, if agreed with International Monetary Fund Expand again.
“In the electoral year, with stocks, Soybeans are higher than 500 USD Tons and with central bank With the AL30 portfolio at a face value of $ 4.3 billion, the government has a margin without validating a separate jump in the official exchange rate. That is, using the same strategy seen in the odd electoral years (2011, 2013, and 2015), namely that In official dollars and fees Be a semi-anchor to try to recover wages for InflationEco economist Joe Federico Furias said, but warned: “The problem is in the gap that reaches October: There is no gasoline in BCRA’s reserves, no access to the financial markets, and a major fiscal imbalance. ”
For the economist, with this scenario, an agreement with the fund is essential: “ But as for politics, in an election year, it will never be validated. That is why I do not rule out the government arriving Light arrangement; This means that attitudes are close this year, but the effects will not appear until 2022. “
Economist Gabriel Zelbo reads beyond the president’s words: “I will not be guided by the speech. Regardless, what matters is whether the amendments requested by the commission in an election year have been addressed. But until an agreement is reached, the exchange rate calm is not guaranteed. “, He said.
Done by Lorena Giorgio, from Econviews Focus on the gap: “While there is room for a delay DollarsAnd the The problem is that with a 60% gap the economy cannot function normally. At least until the middle of the year, the government has some margin to continue this minor policy Crawling wedge. It will not be free The government is keeping the exchange rate low at a lower rate than the monthly inflation. “
However, this economist’s forecast is not as enthusiastic as the minister’s forecast Martin Guzman: “Although we believe the exchange rate will advance a little more slowly than inflation, we estimate that 50% inflated And the exchange rate, with an annual increase of nearly 43%, Far from 29% and 25% This is what the government is highlighting. “