The White House and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been informed of the presentation that Alberto Fernandez and Martin Guzman will give to the governors To make the negotiations they are conducting before Kristalina Georgieva transparent with the aim of refinancing the 44 thousand million dollars that Mauricio Macri contracted when he occupied the 50th seat.
The President and Minister of Economy sharply criticized the IMF, and Axel Kiselov closed the circle when it was his turn to speak Before the audience who showed the absence of the provincial leaders belonging to Juntos por el Cambio: “The United States” and “strategy must be reconsidered,” The governor of Buenos Aires slipped.
These two concepts Kicillof –United States and The strategy must be revised – they caused a chain reaction that went from the US Treasury Secretary to the White House. In Washington, they assume Kiselov is Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s chief economic advisor, and they assessed yesterday that his speech contained a potential negotiating strategy that Alberto Fernández and Guzmán had always denied.
The president denied the concept of amendmentGuzmán retracted that the talks were hampered by the United States’ perspective on the failed program implemented by Macri. Kiselov continued the parable by referring to the Secretary of the Treasury and warning of the possibility of a change in strategy.
Under these circumstances, Alberto Fernandez will find it very difficult to conclude an agreement with the consent of the United States. Without the support of Joseph Biden, Argentina is headed straight for a sovereign debt default.
Yant Yellen, the Treasury secretary, who serves on the IMF board at Biden’s order, and has already made clear in the White House and Georgieva herself, that the plan presented by Guzmán needs a stronger reduction in the fiscal deficit. This request from Yellen means for Alberto Fernandez an economic adjustment which he does not wish to carry out.
The head of state spoke before the governors about his diplomatic successes of the G-20 in Rome, But it remains clear that a secret conspiracy has been revealed that explains the IMF’s reluctance to approve it on its board. The United States, Canada, Japan and Australia did not want to agree to reduce the surchargesAnd They have doubts about Argentina benefiting from the transfer of millions of dollars in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) belonging to the central countries.
The reluctance of Biden and his historical allies was overcome by pressure from China, Russia, Mexico, and some African and Middle Eastern countries in Argentina’s favour. then, The G-20 in Rome managed to issue its closing statement and Alberto Fernandez managed to score a diplomatic victory in this multilateral forum.
But the White House did not forget the defeat in Italy and paid off well in Washington. He ruled out reducing the additional fees at the last session of the Governing Council, linking an International Monetary Fund report that revealed deficiencies in the program presented by Macri and will not support Balcarce 50 until the government accepts the economic adjustment plan.
This secret plot by Alberto Fernandez was never revealed. Its content in time and space allows us to understand why Guzmán’s display at the Bicentennial Museum set off all alarms in Washington.
It is not an ideological issue. It is a geopolitical issue: the United States and its partners intend to collect the 44 billion dollars that Macri has contracted, and they do not want Argentina to facilitate China’s influence in Latin America.
In addition to Alberto Fernandez’s insistence on taking over the presidency of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) To subdue the regional influence of the Organization of American States (OAS), which is highly critical of authoritarian regimes in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.
Georgieva suggested Alberto Fernandez to star in an unquestionable display of institutional power Reassure the most reluctant nations on the board that their negotiating strategy was supported by key leaders of domestic politics.
The head of state accepted Georgieva’s hypothesis and believed that the penalty for the 2022 budget complies with the recommendation of the Director General. But Maximo Kirchner’s speech buried that possibility, and Alberto Fernandez found a viable alternative in Guzmán’s official presentation before 24 governors.
This institutional alternative was influenced by the absence of Horacio Rodríguez Laretta (the Federal Capital), Gerardo Morales (Jujuy), Rodolfo Suárez (Mendoza) and Gustavo Valdes (Correntes), who do not always trust the president’s political motives.
Guzmán always understood the need to have Rodriguez Larita, Morales, Suárez and Valdes at the presentation, and played one last icon by sending WhatsApp to their personal cell phones yesterday. Unlucky, the loyal leader didn’t reply.
However, in the short term, the main difficulty for Alberto Fernandez and his minister will not be a new door by Together for Change as a result of the act they did yesterday at the Bicentennial Museum..
The main problem facing the president and Guzmán now is that the United States has validated its skepticism about the proposal that Argentina made to the IMF staff.. And these doubts, after the speeches of the Minister of Economy and Kisilov, Alberto Fernandez, will be difficult to reverse in just 75 days.
On March 22, it is necessary to pay about three thousand million dollars that are not in the reserves of the Central Bank. Without the deal as Biden wants, there will be default when the downfall begins.