Aside from the economic and financial difficulties, Javier Miley is promoting his diplomatic agenda: he has chosen to calm bilateral relations with China and the bloc of countries that make up the BRICS, Strengthening geopolitical relations with the United States, Mercosur, and the European Union.
Xi Jinping through swap It could guarantee millions of dollars to repay the IMF and maintain foreign trade volume, but the president opted for a multilateral agenda Unites Argentina with the ideas of the West.
The perspective that Miley applies to his foreign policy agenda It also means cooling diplomatic relations with Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Iran. The head of state will not appoint ambassadors to these authoritarian regimes, and has already ordered Argentina to condemn their ongoing human rights violations in all multilateral forums.
MIlei also wants to reshape Mercosur and renew the bilateral agreement that the Mauricio Macri administration signed with the European Union. The president's political intentions face two geopolitical problems that are difficult to solve: His ongoing confrontation with Lula da Silva Emmanuel Macron's reluctance to accept changes to the Mercosur and European Union treaties.
Brazil is Mercosur's most important partner, and nothing can be renewed without its approval. Lula believes Bolsonaro conspired to oust him from the Planalto Palace and hates that Miley supports his predecessor. In this arid scenario, Where ideological differences and personal doubts intersect, The president will not be able to do much to renew Mercosur.
Emmanuel Macron is a charming politician Who uses his WhatsApp like a magic wand. Through a casual conversation, he invited Macri (2016), Alberto Fernandez (2020), and now Miley (2024) to Eliseo's palace. He has always presented himself as Argentina's ideal European partner: he helped resolve debts in the Paris Club, voted in favor of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund and managed to convince Alberto Fernández to participate in the G7 summit.
But these personal gestures do not mean his final support for the party Lateral letter Which should rewrite the Mercosur-EU agreement. Macron has already left Macri and Alberto Fernandez on the sidelines and is repeating that The method of work With Miley. It seems condescendingwinking from afar, finally buying time to preserve it the current situation.
The changes proposed by Argentina are in harmony with Paraguay – which is a triad with Brazil – Macron will never accept them: If it does so, its domestic power and historical legacy will be under control.
Without France, it is unlikely Lateral letter Which makes the current agreement between the blocs compatible with the green agenda approved by the European Union It harms the economies of Mercosur's four partners.
Given the geopolitical dilemmas posed by Argentina’s relations with China, Brazil, and regional dictatorships, Miley has already achieved a direct and direct engagement with the administration of Joseph Biden. The head of state has put his closeness to Donald Trump behind the curtain, and is betting on strengthening his closeness to the White House.
Washington has a contradictory agenda with Brazil, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia and Paraguay, maintains an unstable relationship with Mexico, and is at odds with Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. in this context, Argentina appears to be a reliable partner for Biden And its interests in the region, given China’s systematic progress along the Silk Road.
The White House will support Argentina in its negotiations with the International Monetary Fundwhich will begin to be decided in the next two weeks, intends to improve regional economies through a system of preferences that is discussed – every year – on Capitol Hill.
Miley is traveling to Davos and will speak on January 17 at that global forum. It aims to explain its government's program and its foreign policy road map. If there is no change in the agenda Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and International Monetary Fund Executive Director Kristalina Georgieva will listen in the front row.