The last leak of Secret Pentagon Documents Reveal what the United States believes about the relationship of power between them China and Taiwan: The island would be “extremely vulnerable” to air attack It is unlikely to be able to “accurately detect missile launches.” Under this scenario, the Chinese Air Force would have a better chance of establishing early control of the airspace. China’s covert tactic of using civilian ships for military purposes has eroded the ability of US spy agencies to detect an invasion.
Apart from the leak, there are analyzes done through public information. Between China and Taiwan there are 128 kilometers of sea. The logistics of the invasion would involve hundreds of aircraft and large, low-speed ships, highly vulnerable to Taiwanese missile and submarine attacks. To disembark troops and weapons in large quantities, they would need to do so in previously captured ports without destroying them in combat, which is unlikely: they are well defended. The Chinese would also have to use Taiwanese airfields to land personnel, supplies, and armored vehicles.
Taiwan’s army is highly trained for such scenario and equipped with accurate air weapons and underwater mines. They have 163,000 active members and 1.6 million in reserve. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has 2.03 million soldiers. But his victory will be very hard. In the digital dimension, the Taiwanese division is up to 2,400 electronic fighters. But the Chinese soldier consists of 100,000 keyboard soldiers working on the electrical grids and the Internet to “blind” and isolate the island, paralyzing it. Taiwan has computational weapons to prevent such invisible attacks, and China is sure to attack American satellites with missiles.
China has 40 air bases within striking range of Taiwan. The Taiwanese Air Force has 411 F-16s and Mirage 2000s hidden in wide tunnels in the mountains, taking off without an airport.
Taiwan’s Heng Shan military command dug into the mountain, and communicated with the US command in Hawaii via satellite. The American air squadrons would reach Okinawa in an hour, giving the Chinese a small leeway to strike Taiwan sooner. And farther north, in Yokosuka, is the headquarters of the Seventh. North American Naval Fleet with 70 ships and submarines as well as 150 aircraft.
China requires more than 400,000 soldiers to control Taiwan And several days to take them. It would be impossible to hide that from radar, eliminating the surprise factor.
CIA Director William Burns said in February that Xi Jinping had ordered his military to be able to take over Taiwan in 2027 to celebrate the centenary of the founding of the People’s Army. This does not mean that they will try on that date or another. In Burns’ view, Xi and his military doubt the success of the invasion, a warning fueled by Ukrainian resistance against Russia. Unlike the scenario in Ukraine, Taiwan cannot hold out for long without direct intervention from the United States.
