What if no party achieves an absolute majority? France intends to form an emergency government modeled after Italy

Anti-far-right protest in Paris, June 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

All opinion polls predict the success of the National Rally candidate. Jordan Bardella In the legislative elections in France. But can it really be considered a success if your party does not achieve an absolute majority? The truth is that, barring a major surprise, opinion polls will give a scenario Cohabitation – A prime minister from a party other than the one holding the presidency.

France has two High Representatives of State. On the other hand, the President of the Republic said, Emmanuel Macron, who exercises the function of head of state. On the other hand, the Prime Minister, now Gabriel Attal, Juntos' candidate –to gather– To which Macron's party, the Ennahdha Party, belongs. This coexistence scheme is designed as Control system between both positions.

The French Magna Carta states that after the vote is known, the president will be in charge Suggest a candidate For the post of Prime Minister, which must necessarily be approved by a parliamentary majority. In a coexistence scenario – which France has witnessed three times in its history – if a party achieves an absolute majority, the candidate will respond only to the will of the National Assembly, and Macron will therefore not be able to appoint the new government. The government, with the exception of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defense, is the exclusive prerogative of the head of state.

But in these elections, an absolute majority seems far from being achieved, waiting for what the examination shows. However, if the party that received the largest number of votes in the first round fails to collect an absolute majority, it must seek support in a coalition that combines 289 parliamentarians are required In the National Assembly.

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In the hypothetical case in which the National Front emerged as the party with the largest number of votes at the ballot box, Macron would be forced to propose his own candidate for prime minister. Parliament He will accept, with the votes in favor of the parliamentarians of the National Rally Party, The installation of Bardella, who can govern but with a simple majority, relying on the refusal of all parties to form a coalition.

Jordan Bardella, head of the National Rally Party and candidate for prime minister, during a press conference in Paris. (Reuters/Gonzalo Fuentes)

The traditional right of the Republicans has already proven this, as their leader, Eric CiottiHe was expelled – and readmitted by order of justice – because he allowed himself to be attracted by the idea of ​​belonging to a government in association with the national group.

The leader of the national group has repeated on many occasions that he will not rule without an absolute majority, so we have to wait first if he accepts the position or not, as within the group there is a certain fear of that. He rules without support. And they have their reasons. France There will be presidential elections in 2027 An unstable government in a state of siege could damage the image of a party that also aspires to become president.

“It would seem very strange to me that there is no institutional blockage. Even parties that can support the far right with concrete measures will not do so.” Spain information Arsenio Cuencaa political scientist specializing in the study of extremism. Cuenca explains that the state of institutional blockade does not mean that it is impossible to agree to specific measures through Ordinances. Cuenca points out that Macron holds the record for the entire Fifth Republic in approving measures through this parliamentary resource.

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Arriving at this scene of institutional chaos, the Elysee begins to explore the possibility of implementing a new plan. Emergency governmentThat is, a temporary executive authority in which it is not politicians who rule, but experts. “With Macron, no one knows how far he can stretch the constitution,” Cuenca says sarcastically. One of the most popular names in France is the President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde Or the former president of the same institution Jean-Claude Trichet.

This is nothing new in times of crisis in Europe. Italy, immersed in establishing a permanent institutional bloc, has already done so in 2021 to manage European funds during the Covid-19 pandemic. At that time, the former president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, accepted an assignment Formation of an “emergency” government in ItalyThis was after negotiations to re-issue the Executive Committee headed by Giuseppe Conte They will fail due to lack of support.

However, experts believe that An unlikely scenario, which cannot be ruled out. He added: “France is already accustomed to ruling by coexistence, and this is not a convincing reason to resort to this system of government.” “First, new elections will be called.”

All the lights point to the far right, but among left-wing voters there is a certain amount of optimism with the scent of a comeback. “I've never seen people hand out this many election ads, not even during the 2022 presidential election Completely flipped“Not only at the level of citizens, but also at the level of political parties, unions, associations, collectives… everyone,” says Cuenca, who explains that the mobilization of left-wing voters could be the key to a new popular party. The Front rings the bell in the legislative elections.

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Participate in these elections May reach 64%This is a result that will destroy 47.5% of the 2022 legislative elections, according to a poll conducted by Ipsos for the newspaper. Financial Times.

Freddie Dawson

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