US unemployment rate drops again to 4.6% (versus 4.7% estimates and 4.8% previously)

Bankinter | Creating non-farm jobs in the United States It advanced to 531K in October, which is clearly above 450K.

Also, the previous record was revised up sharply, to 312K from 194K. that it The index has the best record since July and breaks the series of declines seen over the past two months.

The unemployment rate fell again to 4.6% (versus 4.7% estimates and 4.8% before that). It is still far from the pre-Covid rate, which was hovering around 3.5%, but it reinforces the series of declines that began last July.

Bankinter analysis team opinion:

Very good data, aligned with the context of a strong economic recovery. The full set of employment indicators far exceed estimates and data published in September was revised in a generalized way for the better. The logical thing is that in the coming months this strong development will be reinforced. On the other hand, the extraordinary unemployment benefits expired in September, and thus their distorting effect has disappeared. On the other hand, after these numbers, there are still nearly 4.2 million jobs lost during the health crisis waiting to recover while JOLTS Job Openings reach 10.4 million. In this sense, the Fed monitors a series of criteria (vacancies, resignations, etc.) to determine full employment, and announced at its last meeting that if the economy develops as expected, it will be achievable in the second half of 2022

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Sacha Woodward

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