US crude oil production increase will exceed official expectations | Economie

The latest BNEF report estimates that daily US crude oil production will rise by more than 900,000 barrels next year. Projected production of 12.85 million barrels of crude oil per day exceeds the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast of 250,000 barrels.

Prospects for the growth of domestic oil production next yearIt looks strong and resilient despite the recent fluctuations in commodity prices, mainly due to lower break-even prices for US oil.said BNEF analyst Tai Liu, author of the report.

The analysis shows that the prospect of higher prices once EU sanctions on Russian oil come into effect, as well as the global need for reliable access to energy, will continue to support production growth.

Rising fears about a global recession have caused oil prices to drop recently, with futures contracts earlier this week hitting their lowest levels since January. According to the report, prices must fall below $50 a barrel before oil producers change their plans for 2023.

The US could see slower production growth in 2024 if producers do not complete more wells. This could further tighten markets, especially if demand for crude oil rises in the next couple of years. Liu said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners already had limited capacity to increase production.

BNEF expects that in 2024, production will rise by less than 200,000 barrels, to 13.04 million barrels per day. Crude oil production in the Permian Basin is estimated to be 5.8 million barrels per day by the end of 2024.

The report also noted that EIA’s production estimate was lower than BNEF’s previous forecast. The EIA may be underestimating the oil supply because the agency’s supply adjustment, which includes any remaining crude that could not be otherwise classified, was high compared to normal seasonal levels, according to the report.