Written by Louis Duran
Aldous Huxley, the brilliant English writer and philosopher of the last century, used to say: “Data does not cease to exist because it is ignored.” The trade balance is one of the most important economic data in any country’s economy. It mainly consists of subtracting imports from exports. An economy that seeks its development and growth must always have a surplus in the trade balance. INEGI recently published the figures for our country for the first two months of the year. It is important to analyze it to see where we are and what we need to do to continue or correct the path. In the case of Mexico, the numbers are worrying.
The trade balance in January and February recorded a deficit of $4,993 million. It is worth noting that our deficit for the whole year amounted to $11.491 million last year. In other words, in those first two months, we actually came to close to 44% of the total deficit for 2021. It’s also important to note that the 2021 deficit hit a negative number for the first time in three years, since 2019. It had a $5362.1 million surplus and in In 2020, it amounted to $34.013 million. This means that the change from 2020 to 2021 implies a negative variance of $45,504 million. The deficit in these two months seems to indicate that our annual negative figure may reach unexpected levels.
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All of this data points to the fact that we must make important adjustments in our economic strategy if we do not want to reach a historic trade deficit. Considering that we have one of the most important commercial weapons on the planet, the T-MEC (Mexico-US-Canada Free Trade Agreement), the task should not be too difficult. Many of the opportunities that exist today have been realized to take advantage of the difficulties in the global supply chain. As well as China’s distancing from the United States, to make our country in a position to seize the historic opportunity.
In order to be successful we must be cunning. It’s time to make a national call to seek to build that plan that greatly enhances our exports. We should point to opportunities and give incentives to investment that seeks to exploit these situations. We also need to show that we can and want to be good partners in the economy of our neighbors to the north. It is time to put aside fruitless and stressful attitudes about the reform of energy that refers to the past and that, being practical, it is not only obsolete, but also useless. We already saw that very clearly in the recent visit of North American Environment Secretary John Kerry. The current projects and contracts that many renewable energy providers in the United States have with our country represent a strong foundation for building the future of clean energy in North America.
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Full implementation and adherence to our trade agreements are essential to furthering our common interests and regional competitiveness. Ambassador Ken Salazar explained: “The United States and Mexico have an extraordinary opportunity to create an economic powerhouse in North America, leading the world in clean energy. Mexico is our most important partner and has an extraordinary potential for renewable energy to be harnessed.”
The United States wants to build a strong supply chain with us and they will not stand idly by in the face of initiatives that do not build or affect their interests. The answer to our challenges is to build for the economic forces of the future in an assertive and effective manner. Otherwise, we will have a historical deficit in the trade balance.
Contact:
Louis Duran, Chairman of the C . Publication CommitteeOperamix
The opinions expressed are the sole responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
