Geneva, January 26 (EFE). The epidemic has accelerated the dynamics that were brewing and that will end stability in the coming months and years as part of the global economy, according to the results of a survey conducted by leading economists in dozens of companies and public institutions from different countries.
In a survey conducted by the World Economic Forum, those responsible for directing the economic decisions of banks, insurance companies, institutional and multinational investors indicated that the path of the Coronavirus and the distribution of vaccines are the factors that will determine the economic context, policies and trends in the short and medium term.
Among the trends identified, the most important ones are new ways of working, increasing inequality, the wider role of governments and the increasing power of major technology companies, according to a report prepared by the forum with responses from nearly fifty economists from them. Collaborate.
These results were released in conjunction with the annual meeting of the Davos Forum, which is being held roughly this year due to the epidemic.
With regard to telework, it is claimed that its long-term impact on labor force and productivity remains unclear, despite the argument that it is here to stay in one way or another.
The report points to a previous study of the epidemic conducted by Stanford University, according to which remote workers produced 13% more, a figure that was divided by 4% because they could do more tasks per minute and 9% because they worked overtime that they did not do. Use them to move to their offices.
However, this result is consistent with workers who do not have children at home, have fast internet connections and have a room in which they can work without being distracted.
The Forum emphasizes that since these conditions are far from the majority, this conclusion should not in fact be generalized. Instead, isolation and reduced brainstorming can affect the productivity of remote work in the long run.
Another factor that will determine the economic future, according to the forum, is the exacerbation of inequality and the disproportionate effect of unemployment according to the category of jobs.
They remember that while in the recessions of 1990, 2001 and 2018, job losses in the United States remained less than 10% (regardless of income level), in light of the pandemic, those who earn more lost less income.
Thus, the higher earners suffered a 5% drop, while the lower wage earners lost 30%, even though the former appears to have fully recovered.
The forum identifies the acceleration and focus of the digital economy as another element that may be here to stay.
The value of the biggest tech companies increased in 2020, and the top five reached the highest prices in their history, affecting the gap that opened between the real economy and stock markets, according to reflections by leading economists.
As a fourth factor, it is indicated that managing the epidemic has increased the role of countries in the global economy.
However, they remember that although there was consensus that governments responded quickly and broadly, questions were also raised regarding controls and transparency in the distribution of emergency aid and financial incentives.
The forum recommends that “the risk of corruption and transfer of funds is present and real and needs to be considered.” EFE
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