The Italian economy will not recover from the “downward spiral” caused by the coronavirus pandemic until the end of 2022, forecasts that will depend on the vaccination campaign in the country and in Europe, according to the Confindustria Employers Association today.
Its study center expects a “gradual recovery” of Italy’s GDP from the second half of this year, projecting an increase of 4.1 percent in 2021 and 4.2 percent in the following year.
However, economists in Confindustria are not talking about “growth” but they estimate that this data “should fill the vortex that opened in 2020 due to the Coronavirus pandemic.”
They emphasized that these expectations are “conditional” on the development of comprehensive vaccination in Italy and Europe, given the possibility that the virus “will be effectively contained in the coming months.”
The European Commissioner for Economics, Paolo Gentiloni, who was present at the presentation of the report today, said that these data are “consistent” with those discussed in Brussels and which will be presented in May.
On the other hand, an “important contribution” to this recovery will be the arrival of European funds equivalent to the country, 209,000 million euros in grants and loans.
Indeed, without the help of the EU’s Next Generation Fund, Italy’s GDP recovery will be 0.7% lower in 2021 and 0.6% lower in 2022, according to the report.
As for the global economy, the recovery will be “asymmetric” and the United States and China will encourage its prosperity. In Europe, the collapse of the Italian economy was “stronger and its recovery slower than expected”.
This led to widening differences with the powers mentioned above and with the largest European countries, such as Germany, Finland and the Netherlands.
The main reason for this Italian “weakness” is that tourism is one of the sectors most affected by the health crisis, which is valued at 13% of the country’s GDP and has been hampered by restrictions on travel and movement.
An improvement in the global situation and an increase in demand will help Italy to increase its exports, which fell by 13.8% last year with the outbreak of the crisis.
In 2021, Italy will export 11.4% more and next year 6.8% more, according to estimates by Confindustria.