The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean estimates GDP growth of 7.4% in 2021 and forecasts 3% in 2022

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates that Nicaragua’s economy grew by 7.4% in 2021, and that it will grow by 3.0% in 2022, as a result, among other things, of the performance of the US economy, and from How are vaccination rates progressing?. For its part, the World Bank (WB) estimated these figures at 5.5% in 2021, and 3.0% by 2022.

Three years after A decrease has been observed as of 2018 (a product of government repression against citizens that appeared in the April uprising) and 2020 year The start of the covid-19 pandemic, Nicaragua will return to positive terrain in 2021, a year in which it could grow by between 7.5% and 9.5%, according to the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).

Data for Nicaragua included in A preliminary overview of the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2021, presented by ECLAC Executive Secretary Alicia Barceñas, shows that there is no relationship between the growth assumptions for Nicaragua’s GDP made by BCN over the course of the year, and the country’s employment and wage performance, As shown in September 2021Enrique Sainz, economist.

The ECLAC report shows that in that month, open unemployment was 5.0% (women, 4.8% and men 5.2%), and that the real median salary – down from 114.1 it reached in 2018 (compared to 2020). ). as a base year), it was 112.1, reflecting a marginal growth of 0.3 compared to September 2020.

Inflation in 2021 will be 5.0%, nearly double the 2.6% observed in 2020, when households decide and companies From staying home to curbing COVID-19 infections, this has slowed the growth of the economy, versus saving lives.

Similarly, it is clear that the GDP per capita in 2021 will return to positive terrain (6.2%), after declining for three consecutive years, reaching -4.6% in 2018; -4.9% in 2019, and -3.1% in 2020.

It notes that “strong demand in major export destinations (the United States and China), higher commodity prices, and the continued high volume of remittances sent to Central American and Caribbean countries supported growth in 2021.” Transfer Global Economic Prospects, published by BM.

In this regard, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean notes that “migrant remittances are growing by about 30% … and continue to be a very important source of external resources for the countries of the region, in particular for Central America, Mexico and some Caribbean countries.”

Datos del BCN muestran que en 2020, el país recibió 1851 millones de dólares en concepto de remesas familiares, cifra que ya alcanzaba los 1557 millones de dólares en septiembre de 2021, por lo que no debería haber mayor el impedimento para de total last year, Exceeding $2 billion.

The dynamism exhibited by remittances is linked to the economic recovery in the countries of origin. Also, in part, to the fact that immigrants would have benefited from employment stimulus and protection programs implemented in the sending economies, particularly the United States and Spain,” says the report presented by Minister Barcenas.

tax care

Although neither the ECLAC nor the World Bank report contains a specific chapter devoted to balance sheets and indicators of the Nicaraguan economy, both point to some factors that will affect the regional macroeconomic environment, which will lead emerging economies back to growth trends up to 2025, roughly three years after the advanced economies.

Barcenas noted that the region will see a decline in growth in global economies and trade, due to the slowdown in the United States and China, which are the region’s main trading partners.

In this regard, he noted that Latin America and the Caribbean faces a less favorable external context, less fiscal space with high inflationary pressures, exchange rate fluctuations, lower investment and a slow recovery in employment.

Based on this scenario, he said, the region should review tax spending and royalties to extract non-renewable resources; improve collection efficiency; Join global tax transparency agreements, and avoid internal tax evasion.

In terms of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), data for Nicaragua shows that after reaching its peak of $983 million in 2015, the number declined in 2016 and 2017; It grew in 2018, and declined again to reach $444 million in 2020.

Balance ¨ Initial It shows that net resource transfer (referring to net income or capital inflow) was positive through 2017, and we recorded losses (that is, we sent resources abroad), of more than $2.85 billion between 2018 and 2021.

Along the same lines, it is clear that the total external debt amounted to $13,538 million in 2020, bringing it back to the growth rate that slowed in 2018 and 2019.

For its part, the central government’s total public debt (as a percentage of GDP), which has systematically declined between the 31.8% measured in 2011 and the 29.9% reported in 2015, started growing as of 2016, when it rose to 31.2%, closing 2020 at 48.5% of GDP.

2020 was a good year for BCN will accumulate total international reserves (RIB), thanks in large part to To mitigate hurricane damage ETA and IOTA, as well as international support to combat COVID-19.

RIBs ended 2020 at $3,003 million, so they slowed down Falls of the last two yearsIt surpassed the historic record of $2.593 million in 2017, which reached $2.593 million. The number rose further in 2021, closing at $3837 million, among other things, for $355.3 million contributed by the International Monetary Fund.

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Aileen Morales

"Beer nerd. Food fanatic. Alcohol scholar. Tv practitioner. Writer. Troublemaker. Falls down a lot."

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