In short, there is nothing outside the IMF. Everything must be inside. What Argentina can rule out is that China, Russia and the Arab countries will support the country in the council.
Within the government, the calculations are already being made on the most significant “segment” of votes for the country in recent years. The event that should happen this month is the letter of intent to be presented in the community next week and which will have to be discussed in the organization’s board of directors before the end of the year’s holiday. It’s Porteus times. According to official forecasts, Argentina will already get nearly 60% of the necessary approval in the board of directors for Alberto Fernandez’s strategy to renegotiate the debt of 44.7 billion US dollars. This level is reached by ensuring that after the presidential round, Germany, France, Spain and other European countries will vote for it, adding that the other key countries that have been excluded will also support Argentina.
It is mentioned in this group Russia, China, Arab countries (especially the Arab Gulf states with a strong presence on the IMF board), as well as logically all of Latin America and Africa. It is also certain that in the coming weeks more consensus will be achieved with key countries such as Canada and the rest of the European Union, bringing the percentage closer to 70%. Thus, only 10% would be missing more than the base level for a proposal to override as dictated by IMF rules to be approved.
Only with a minimum 85% of collateral, fund line technicians can be authorized to apply to the state with a payment plan outside of the only mechanisms authorized by the organization’s charter: Standby and Extended Facility, whatever is possible. variables. Since what the state is proposing is a change of criteria, only a vote of more than 85% can approve the request, in which Alberto Fernandez, sooner or later, must have the support of Joe Bian. Without the President of the United States as an ally, no effort would be worth it.
In conclusion, following the principle of “albertism”, “with Biden it is enough, but without Biden it cannot be.” According to figures made in the Palacio de Hacienda, if a call from Alberto Fernández gets this support, the country will already exceed the necessary 85% and reach nearly 90% of the vote. Only what Japan (6% of the vote), Nordic countries (3.43%) and other European countries, traditionally reluctant to support the country (they did not do under Macri either) will remain in doubt.