Polling in Brazil: Lula, favorite again in polls | The Labor candidate has an advantage of about ten points over Bolsonaro

previous president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva Confirmed this Wednesday as Favorites in the Brazilian elections By obtaining 51 percent of the intent to vote in the first poll conducted after the first round of Sunday’s elections. However, specialists claim that If Lula wins, he will have to face the Bolsonarista Conference.

president Jair BolsonaroWho will face him in the second round of the presidential elections on October 30, Appears at 43% From the intent to vote, according to Ipec Institute surveybelonging to the media chain Globo, which interviewed 2,000 voters between Monday and Wednesday this week in 129 cities in the country.

Taking into account only valid votes, i.e. excluding blank and blank votes as the electoral authorities do, the former union leader can get 55 percent of the valid votes and the far right 45. In the first round of the presidential election and Progressive Leader won 48.4 percent of the correct votes and The far-right leader came in second with 43.2 .. Working with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%, so that, in the most adjusted scenario, Lula would prevail by 53 points to 47, according to the voting intent discovered by Ipec.

IPIC also measured the candidate rejection rate, reaching 50 percent of Brazilian voters confirmed that they would in no way vote for Bolsonaro in the second round, which is 40 points for Lula.

Lula support and oversight of Bolsonaro

The third and fourth place candidates in the elections are center-right Simon Tibet and work Cyrus GomezAlready announced Lula supported him in the second round. For his part, the president had the support of the rulers of the three largest electoral bodies of the state: Rodrigo Garcia in São Paulo; Romeo Zima in Minas Gerais; Claudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro.

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Opinion polls before the first round underestimated Bolsonaro’s strengthThey gave up a 14-point lead over Lula. Bolsonaro criticized polls Since they began to cast Lula as a favourite, accusing them of trying to manipulate voters, so their allies took advantage of the gap with the results to propose measures to constrain the actions of these companies and even investigate and fine them. this tuesday, The Brazilian government has ordered the police to investigate the conduct of electoral polling consultants. For his part, the spokesman for the ruling party in the House of Representatives, Ricardo Barros, promised to submit a bill to impose fines or prison sentences on poll organizers who commit mistakes that exceed the margin of error.

Bolsonarista vs. Lula Conference

Professors and specialists in Latin American politics warned, on Wednesday, of this, if this happens Lola da Silva Took the position of president in Brazil, It must contradict its agenda to achieve material and social rights in the face of authoritarian nationalismrepresented by President Jair Bolsonaro, with the largest seat in Congress.

The Liberal Party (PL) will have the largest seat in the House of Representatives With 99 seats. who – which A movement that denies the epidemic, is violent with women and journalistsThe President of the Federation of Journalists for Latin America and the Caribbean (Fepalc) said, Fabian Cardosowhen describing a post-round scenario in Brazil, where the Workers’ Party (PT) candidate, Lula da Silva.

What agenda could Lula bring for a seat in this profile? And how can disagreement on the agenda with the media? ” The election.

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In this sense, Cardoso stressed that the big debate is what agenda the new Labor government may eventually have and whether it will be able to disagree on it before the Evangelical Caucus, the Caucus of agricultural producers, and sectors associated with the incumbent president. “What is happening in Brazil is the dispute over the middle that can give them victory.”He noted Lula’s decision to form alliances with his former political rival, Geraldo Alchem, by choosing him as his deputy. According to Cardoso, the decision to move toward the center has to do with winning and would later mean contention of the agenda against the conservatism of the main actors.

The virtual meeting, “Reflecting on the turmoil of the world from Latin America,” was moderated by political scientist Mariana Vázquez and organized by the Global South Observatory and the National Institute for Political Training.

Progressive governments must act

For her part, a professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Politics and Government, Guadalupe Cabreraexpressed that if the mineral leader and the president twice managed to return to the Planalto Palace, he would have to move towards material rights, not forgetting the rights of minorities. “The advancement of civil rights comes with the realization of material rights.”Correa Cabrera emphasized and weighed these social demands on the environmental agenda rooted in large cities, but not across the country.

Along these lines, the specialist in international politics explained that if the wave of new progressive governments in the region did not have results in the working classes, it would likely fail and lead to the emergence of other dangerous figures. Correa said, referring to Bolsonaro, who classified him as an authoritarian nationalist and compared it to former US President Donald Trump and his political vision. In this regard, the specialist noted that They are ultra-conservative values ​​rooted in disappointment and despairThat politicians use to put the enemy out there.

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Lula, Hope for Latin America

In turn, Professor of Latin American Politics at the University of Buenos Aires and Director of the Global South Observatory, Federico Monteroexpress it The possible return of Lula da Silva would represent that the popular sphere reflects the coup process That began with the collapse of the government of Dilma Rousseff. “The chances that Lula will head a popular government with transformational policies will be a signal to other governments in the region that are experiencing an even greater recession,” Monteiro said.

In this context, the director of the observatory indicated that the alignment of governments in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina will be created, a regional political panorama that, according to Montero, will not be secondary. Montero listed some of the highlights of the Labor candidate’s campaign: “Lula said he would re-float Unasur, had a proposal to relaunch the Bank of the South, and put a common currency for the South in the public debate.”

Despite emphasizing that Bolsonaroism has been politically underestimated, the professor warned that the potential defeat of these authoritarian expressions would have important consequences in other Latin American countries. “We’re a month away from a group shoot the cum twice In an attack attempt clearly related to neo-fascist expressions. The defeat of neo-fascist tyranny will have consequences for other countriesMontero completed.

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