Repression increases in Peru as the current president Dina Polwart joins ranks with the right-center to strengthen her weak government. Indeed, the new appointment of Alberto Otarola, Defense Minister until yesterday, as Chief of Staff, gives a direct indication of the direction taken by the government, which has chosen to strengthen itself by relying more and more on the armed forces.
There are not a few who are facing a crisis scenario that seems uncontainable, playing with all kinds of speculations about the real chances of survival of a transitional government with these characteristics.
The truth is that in the event that Boluarte cannot fulfill his mandate, the person who must take command is the current President of Congress, José Williams, a retired military man who between 2005 and 2006 was the head of the Joint Command of the Armed Forces. He was accused of corruption and also tried, acquitted of the 1985 Accomarca massacre.
Faced with the current scenario of extreme instability, the mandate defaults to July 2024, cWith the general election in April, No doubt it helps Boluarte and decompresses part of the tensions. But those who stand to gain the most from the new measure approved by Congress are the right-wing parties and candidates, who are already beginning to prepare for a distant contest.
Because of the characteristics borne by this crisis, the exit terms of former President Pedro Castillo’s The massacre of about thirty demonstrators across the countrythe international and regional influence was revealed as one of the main features of this process.
Faced with those who suppose he has little time left in government, The president has essential support: that of Anthony Blinken, Joe Biden’s secretary of state. In a December 16 call, the diplomat not only supported the president, but also asked various Peruvian political actors to make every effort to carry out “necessary reforms” with the ultimate goal of protecting democratic stability in the country.
Polwart also boasts of the support of the OAS General Secretariat, which from the outset was in favor of presidential change and expressed in its statement of support the “urgent need to rebuild the democratic path”. At the same time, it is known that the crisis in Peru has weakened and divided an initial territorial unit that has never finished, in concrete terms, effectively providing support to the former president.
One of the first actions was when the governments of Mexico, Colombia, Bolivia and Argentina, after some changes of attitude, expressed concern about the “judicial treatment” that Castillo was receiving once he had been deposed, and demanded that priority be given to the “citizen”. The will announced at the ballot box. Bulwart’s reply was not long in coming: not only did he deny any possibility of resignation, but he also summoned the ambassadors of the countries that spoke to express their disagreement personally.
In practice, today Pedro Castillo still maintains a preferential dialogue with Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Gustavo Petro. If with the first he analyzes the possibility that his family will at least go into exile in Mexico, then the second presents himself as his main spokesperson from an international perspective and in violation of his rights.
Not only did the Colombian ruler insist on the procedural position of the ousted president, citing the responsibility of the Peruvian judicial authorities and international organizations, but he also faced the policy of not recognizing Dina Boloart’s mandate.
Governments of other countries in the region have also spoken out about the crisis in Peru, maintaining contrasting tones and sensibilities in their interventions. Nicolás Maduro accused “oligarchic elites” of preventing Castillo from ruling, to the point of taking him to the extreme of wanting to shut down Congress. The Chilean government expressed its desire to resolve the current conflict “through democratic mechanisms and respect for the rule of law.”
On the other hand, there is still overconfidence in the change of government that will take place in Brazil on January 1, 2023. If Lula da Silva intends to make the interests of his nation prevail at the level of South America once he takes office, she will have to face an unexpected crisis with a country with which she entered into A lucrative economic partnership more than a decade ago, when creating a trade hub between the Pacific and the Atlantic seemed a viable alternative.
However, Lula has already provided some clues on how to counter this situation. On the one hand, he lamented the crisis that had arisen in Peru because it directly related to a democratically elected president. At the same time, he assumed that there was little to be done since the painful replacement of Castillo by Bulwart through parliamentary mediation, he “walked within the constitutional molds”.
The internationalization of the conflict tended to deepen with the recent measure adopted by the Peruvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which agreed to grant safe passage so that the ousted president’s family could travel to Mexico. but at the same time, It declared the Mexican ambassador Pablo Monroe “persona non grata” and ordered him to leave Peru within a maximum of 72 hours.
The repeated statements of the López Obrador government in favor of Castillo, seen as a “violation of the principle of non-intervention”, underlie Boulwart’s decision. Thus, there was a break in the relations between the two countries, despite the declaration of the Mexican presidency itself in favor of continuing the dialogue.
While Dina Polwart redirected her traditional relations with Washington, the current crisis in Peru revealed that there was no unequivocal explanation in the region regarding the departure of Pedro Castillo from the presidency, nor were there similar calls to condemn the policy of repression assumed by the government.
Despite the lack of clear statements by the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and other regional examples, the discussions about much-needed South American and/or Latin American integration that began with Lula’s victory in Brazil will be deferred for the future, for sure, for later moments. . Promising and more comfortable scenarios.