The increase in Covid-19 infections during the Northern Hemisphere winter, driven by the Omicron variant, is causing some Economists begin lowering US growth forecastsDow Jones was released.
In the United States, companies are fighting Absenteeism, labor shortages, and consumers start staying at home again To avoid getting sick, affecting economic recovery.
Analysts began lowering expectations for the United States after the first indications that a Sharp increase in infections It is beginning to affect different areas of the economy.
Airlines are a case in point, canceling thousands of flights in the middle of the Christmas seasonThis is due in part to the shortage of individuals with Covid-19.
US authorities are trying to prevent hospitals from becoming saturated while trying to avoid further trade disruption.
Moody’s Analytics, with the voice of Mark Zandi, its chief economist, lowered US GDP growth forecasts for the first quarter of the year, From a rate of 5.2% to 2.2%, stressing that “the economic damage will increase in the first quarter.”.
The economist’s arguments are based on a Spend more moderately on travel and canceling sporting events and Broadway shows, due to an outbreak of infection from Omitron.
“The dynamics look very similar to what happened when it hit Delta,” Zandi explained, noting the fact that at the time, 6.1% economic growth was initially expected in the third quarter, and eventually, the economy expanded at a rate of 2.3% from July to September .
Pantheon Macroeconomics lowered its forecast for US growth, From an annual rate of 5% to 3% in the first quarter of 2022, joining several other analysts who lowered their growth forecasts at the start of the year.
“It’s unfortunate that[Micron]has had to explode during the Christmas season, even in places like New York City where people are massively vaccinated,” said Pooja Sriram, an economist at Barclays. It did not cut its first-quarter growth forecast, but said it Monitors the effects of the outbreak.
Despite everything, it is to be expected micron boosts economic activity from first quarter to second quarter, with less impact than previous waves of the epidemic.
In general terms, Each new wave will deal damage a little less thanAnd above,” Zandi said, in addition to considering that health care providers have improved treatment for the virus and companies have learned to adapt better.
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