The number of daily new asymptomatic Covid-19 infections in the UK has more than halved in one month from an all-time high in late March, according to the latest figures.
But experts warn that cases are still high compared to previous waves and are likely to rise again in the fall.
New cases fell to 137,353 on Friday, 60 percent less than a peak of 349,011 cases on March 31, thanks to warmer weather, the Easter school holiday and higher levels of immunity in the population from high levels of infection. This number was not updated further over the bank’s weekend.
Meanwhile, the total number of people with symptomatic infection in the UK reached 2.6 million on Saturday, well below the April 4 peak of 4.6 million, but up from 2.4 million on April 1 and 2.2 million on March 7, according to ZOE . Covid study app.
Professor Tim Spector of King’s College London, who runs the ZOE app, said the number of symptomatic infections would not fall below 100,000 per day over the next three to four months.
After that, their number could drop briefly to about 50,000 cases per day, before returning to current levels at the end of September as children return to school, the weather gets cooler and a new species “probably” emerges. .
Professor Carl Friston, a virus designer at University College London, said his predictions are similar to those of the ZOE app. His dynamic causal model suggests that reported case rates could drop to about 50,000 per day and then rise to more than 100,000 per day next fall.
Instead, official government figures are becoming increasingly unreliable because they depend on people being tested and their results reported, which is happening less frequently as isolation rules have been relaxed and tests are no longer free.
Accordingly, the latest official figures released on April 29 estimated the number of asymptomatic and asymptomatic cases at 105331. The numbers were not updated again over the bank’s weekend.
The fact that cases, despite a rapid decline, are likely to remain elevated for some time, is of particular concern after all remaining Covid restrictions are lifted and a return to relative normality, the scientists said.
“The current approach to ‘living with COVID’ really does little more than ignore it. Failure to limit spread and ensure spread challenges waning antibody responses means that the most vulnerable are at risk and leads to less likely outcomes, such as seriously ill children, with significant Realistically meaningful: “This means that Covid will continue to rise as a major health problem,” said Steve Griffin of the University of Leeds. me.
Simon Williams, from Swansea University, said: “Although there is no longer a legal requirement for self-isolation, current guidance suggests that people who have tested positive for the virus should avoid contact with other people for five days and avoid contact with other people. Prone for 10 days. days. This advice remains powerful.”