from Mexico City
The June 6 midterm elections in Mexico passed relatively quietly across most of the region. More than 95% of polling stations have been set up and in some municipalities where organized crime colludes with politics there have been incidents such as theft, destruction or burning of election parcels, as well as vote-buying by warehouse or cash.
While waiting for the results and the first predictions, which will arrive from the National Electoral Institute (INE) in the early morning from Argentina, one can talk about Very high turnout that for the first time in a median will exceed 50% of the electorate. Very high turnout in the largest elections in history with More than 20,000 disputed positions, including 1,325 mayors, 500 federal councils and 15 of the country’s 32 provinces, half of the regional authority.
These elections are taking place in the midst of a climate of political polarization and polarization that has been going on for 3 years since the 2018 presidential campaign Turn the election into a referendum on the politics and government of Lopez Obrador. In this sense, everything seems to indicate that the opposition has not achieved its goal as it appears that Morena and his allies (the Green Party and the Labor Party) will maintain an absolute majority in the House of Representatives (251 deputies and 500). Representatives).
Regarding the states, Morena President Mario Delgado announced at the beginning of the election night that Morena has 8 insurances (Zacatecas, Guerrero Tlaxcala, Michoacán, Colima, Campeche, Nayarit and Sinaloa) which will give the opposition 7, leaving a tie that will in fact be a bad result for Morena, a few years ago Months there were chances of winning in 14 out of 15 (all except for the state of Queretaro, in the hands of the conservative PAN party).
But this scenario was reversed by a controversial measure, or at least difficult to understand from an ideological point of view, but effective from an electoral point of view, such as the union in the coalition of the National Action Party (right), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (center) and PRD (the old left). Until Morena arrives). The parties that supported the Peña Nieto Pact for Mexico, which promoted privatization, have now joined the Va x México coalition with one explicitly stated goal: to confront workers at the polls.
Although the opposition coalition has been able to contest electorally, the social, political and economic reality is dominated by the workers, that despite the loss of support among the urban middle classes, it broadens the electoral base with popular sectors historically excluded from the state, and sectors now receiving social benefits and programmes, especially the elderly.
All this in the midst of the pandemic that Mexico has begun to emerge from, with a public policy that prioritized investment in beds, ventilators and doctors, to avoid the saturation we could see in other countries, making the North American country one of the 10 countries in the world to receive the largest number of vaccines. Last week, 1 million vaccines were reached per day, for a total of more than 34 million doses applied (Mexico received more than 43 million doses).
In the absence of official results from the National Electoral Institute, as is usual on many election days, all political actors can say they won, and they are partly right. Obradoresmo accounts for more than half of the contested provinces, which, together with the six already existing ones (Baja California, Chiapas, Mexico City, Puebla, Tabasco, and Veracruz) would give it control of 15-16 of the 32 of the republic, leaving it. The other half is in the hands of the opposition. With regard to the House of Representatives, Morena and his allies maintain the legislative majority they already had, but do not seem to come close to the qualified majority (which they already had) that would allow for constitutional reforms.
Therefore, the disastrous relationship between Obradorismo and the opposition, facing the next three years facing the elections of 2024 in a country without the possibility of re-electing the president and forming a kind of bipartisan partnership with two large blocs, Obradoresmo (Morena with pragmatism). Green Environment and Maoist Labor Party) and the opposition (PRI-PAN with PRD as a satellite in case it reaches 3% of the vote that would allow it to maintain the national electoral register).
In this election, there were also 3 new parties competing from the labor sector, Fuerza Por México, Redes Sociales Progresistas and Encuentro Solidario, which barely reach the 3% that allows them to have a national record (they can add some informal deputies if they win in their area).
So, there is an uncertain scenario, which is the scenario that takes off in the Latin American country that shares the G-20 with Brazil with Argentina.