At the end of 2022, the consensus of private sector analysts predicted that the GDP for 2023 will grow by 0.9%, but according to the survey of expectations of specialists in the private sector economy, prepared by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and which it said announced at the beginning of June, Now they predict that it will grow by 2.0%.
Banxico, in its quarterly report on inflation that it presented a few days ago, confirmed that the Mexican economy is showing better signs than expected, which is why it has improved its forecast for growth to a range of 1.7 to 2.9%, with a central estimate of 2.3. % By comparison, the expected range in the previous report was between 0.8 and 2.4%, with a central estimate of 1.6%.
He explained that the adjustment is mainly due to the fact that the performance of the first quarter of 2023 was better than expected due to the resilience of the economy.
Ahead of the survey and the central bank’s report, financial sector analysts revised their forecasts for the current year upwards.
For example, Monex states that economic numbers between January and April were among the most remarkable in the past five years and lays out a generous base for calculating growth for the whole of 2023.
“Based on this, we now estimate a 2.5% GDP increase, but the future potential is much higher…”. In addition, they consider that the balance of risk tends to be higher.
for his part, Banco Base considers Mexico to close this year down 1.9%, Which means it’s within the margin in the last two quarters of the year, which could be considered a recession.
They added that “Mexico continues to rank as one of the countries with the largest lag in economic growth, among the 45 largest economies in the world. It is noteworthy that among the Latin American economies in this group, it is the worst performer. Above all, it lags behind in investment The constant is a concern, as it will limit long-term growth.”
Analysts noted that “the main risks to the Mexican economy for 2023 are: further weakening of the institutional framework, uncertainty about domestic economic policy, general insecurity, new inflationary pressures, depreciation of the peso, declines and losses in the purchasing power of the local currency.” , recession in the United States, the possibility of new trade consultations and disputes, as well as the possibility of tariffs being imposed by the United States and Canada.