How will the US recession affect Mexico?

April 19, 2023 | 05:00.

risk of this happening A recession in the US is still lurking and Mexico’s economy is likely to suffer from contagionMany specialists agreed.

The recession in the United States may affect Mexico in a very important way, because we are the main economic partner

said Ramon Martinez Juarez, business expert at the School of Banking and Commerce (EBC).

According to the latest models from Bloomberg Economics, There is an 80% chance of a recession in the United States from september.

A recession in the United States will endanger the Mexican economy, because it is “closely linked” In industrial production operations, explained the President of the Mexican Institute of Finance (IMEF), José Domingo Figueroa Palacios.

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Mexico’s economy can be saved from recessionIt will “depend on the factors that arise and how that plays out in the US,” said Janeth Keyrouz, deputy director of economic analysis at Monex.

There is a significant risk that the Mexican economy will suffer a contagion, and it will depend on how deep, widespread and how long the recession is.

he added.

Mexico could even be one of the few countries that may be exempt from a recession Martinez Juarez said around the world.

Not stagnation, slowing down

If the recession in the United States is “short-lived,” a slowdown in economic activity in Mexico is likely. In other words, it will not be a recession.

Although there is significant pressure on the US economy, there are also many conflicting variables, some of which have signs that there may be a recession or slowdown in Mexico.

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Figueroa Palacios said.

Now read: The United States, at risk of entering a recession from September

According to the International Monetary Fund, the US GDP could grow by 1.6% during 2023. While Mexico’s economy could grow by up to 3% in 2023 and 2024, according to estimates from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP)..

Treasury estimate is more convenient compared to other specialists analysis. For example, the International Monetary Fund projects that the Mexican economy will grow by 1.8%, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) estimates an expansion of 1.6% in 2023, and the BBVA estimates that Mexico’s GDP will grow by 1.4% this year.

IMEF considers it To identify an economic recession, the depth or magnitude of the fall, its duration, and its spread must be analyzed. between different activities.

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Aileen Morales

"Beer nerd. Food fanatic. Alcohol scholar. Tv practitioner. Writer. Troublemaker. Falls down a lot."

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