The European Union, the United States, and other countries imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which led to significant cuts in Russian oil and gas exports to those destinations.
But the export volumes of Russian crude “have not changed,” in fact. The World Bank noted that Russia was able to avoid the impact of sanctions and loss of income by increasing its exports to other countries, including India and China.
The agency expects Russia’s economy to contract by just 0.2% this year, according to updated forecasts. This is an upward correction of 3.1 percentage points with respect to the January estimate.
In its report, the World Bank also revised its forecast for the global economy upwards, which is expected to grow by 2.1% this year.
The Washington-based institute explained that this improvement is due to “significant increases in expectations for China and, to a lesser extent, for Russia.”
In the case of China, the forecast for GDP expansion has increased from 4.3% to 5.6% this year.
The US should avoid a recession this year and grow by 1.1% (+0.6 percentage point above January data). Eurozone should expand 0.4%; In January, the bank did not expect any growth.