Despite institutional decline, investors anticipate Morena’s victory in 2024

In addition, 84% of businessmen believe that as long as Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador remains at the helm of the government, rating agencies will not lower the degree of investment in Mexico’s sovereign debt.

This is significant if one considers that in April 2020, 78% of investors believed that at least two rating agencies would downgrade Mexico’s credit rating; In the May 2022 survey, only 16% of them think this is possible.

This depends in part on investors’ views of Lopez Obrador’s access to fundamental constitutional reforms: “98% thought President Lopez Obrador would not be able to agree to important constitutional reforms in the rest of his administration”indicates a Credit Suisse report.

Most investors (84%) did not expect to downgrade Mexico’s long-term foreign-currency debt rating in the next six months, nor did Pemex (83%) expect to downgrade Mexico’s long-term foreign currency debt rating in the next six months.

The dangers they see in Mexico

Most investors believe that the state of global markets will be the main risk to the performance of their investments in Mexican financial assets over the next year.

However, 57% of investors thought it was a good time to add long positions in local government bonds in Mexico, up from 34% in the previous survey (September 2021).