According to the predictions of a scientific investigation, In 2100 part of the provinces of Buenos Aires and Inter Rios, as well as many regions of Latin America, It will be below sea level because climate change.
“Global warming has led to a sea level rise of about 8 inches since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. The research warns that sea level rise dramatically increases the potential for devastating floods from storm surges.
According to a report central climateAnd Various points of Entre Ríos, where the rivers flow Uruguay and Parana, as well as the province of Buenos Aires, at the height of Samborombón Bay, they will be under water in 80 years.
Forecasts indicate that With a global temperature increase of 0.5°C, water can rise by 70cm In the central region of the province of Buenos Aires and the Paraná delta. With an increase of 1°C, the water level will rise to more than 2m, as shown in Interactive map of central climate.
With 2 degree global temperature riseAnd Part of the Buenos Aires and Inter Rios regions will be covered by water that will rise to nearly 5 metres. An increase of 3 degrees Celsius means water above 6 meters, while at 4 degrees Celsius, the situation would be catastrophic, with a height of about 9 meters, according to the forecasts of the US NGO that analyzes and reports on climatology.
Projections show that sea-level rise will flood the coastal areas of Buenos Aires, the southern suburbs of Buenos Aires, La Plata, and towns such as Campana and Ministries. Towards the south of the coast of Buenos Aires, the worst-case scenario would make all cities disappear as far as Mar del Plata.
Global temperature is rising
The 2015 Paris Agreement states that the temperature increase should remain as close as possible to 1.5°C, though Scientific predictions predict that this number will be exceeded between 2030 and 2050.
Scientists suggest that if humanity takes urgent action against global warming, it is possible that the global temperature will drop below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100.
According to the report Climate change 2021: the basis of the physical sciences (Climate Change 2021: The Material Basis) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) I know It predicts that by 2030, the average temperature of the planet will be 1.5°C or 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels in the five scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions.
By mid-century, the +1.5 °C threshold will be exceeded in all scenarios: The most optimistic indicate that it will exceed 0.10 degrees Celsius and the most pessimistic by 1.0 degrees Celsius. Assuming absolutely everything is done to combat climate change, the global temperature, after a 1.5°C rise, will be 1.4°C higher than in the pre-industrial era by 2100, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said.
Equally discouraging scenarios in the rest of Latin America
In Latin America and the Caribbean, more than 27 percent of the population lives in coastal areas, and An estimated 6 to 8 percent live in high or very high risk areas Affected by coastal hazards.
According to the report The state of the climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2020, released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on August 17, Sea level in the Caribbean rose an average of 3.6 mm per year between 1993-2020. This is a higher rate than the world average, which was 3.3 mm per year.
in Mexico, The Cancun beachesas well as zCoastal Unas from Yucatan Peninsula, Quintana Roo, Campeche, and Tabasco They will become a submerged heritage before the next century, according to Climate Central.
in Colombia, Areas near Barranquilla (the mouth of the Magdalena River in the Caribbean Sea) and Towards the border with Panama (Gulf of Uraba) are those that will also disappear under water. The Area From Lake Maracaibo and Tokupita, employment VenezuelaIt will also be under water according to an interactive map.
What the IPCC said about sea level rise
The global level of the oceans Increases About 20 cm since 1900The growth rate has nearly tripled in the past decade, according to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The melting of the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland is now the main factor before the melting of the glaciers.
If global temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius, the level of the oceans will rise by about half a meter in the twenty-first century. It will continue to rise to nearly two meters by 2300, double what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted in 2019. Due to the uncertainty associated with the ice sheets, scientists cannot rule out a two-meter rise in water levels by 2100.
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